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Weekly Market Pulse: A Most Unusual Economy

By |2022-07-11T06:35:09-04:00July 10th, 2022|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

The employment report released last Friday was better than expected but the response by bulls and bears alike was exactly as expected. Both found things in the report to support their preconceived notions about the state of the economy. I do think the bulls had the better case on this particular report but there have been plenty of others recently [...]

The Everything Data’s (Z1) Verdict: Not Inflation, Only More Of The Same

By |2022-06-21T18:58:14-04:00June 21st, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The only thing that changed was the CPI. What distinguishes 2021-22 from the prior post-crisis period 2007-20 is merely the performance of whatever consumer price index. This latter has been called inflation, yet the data conclusively support the market verdict pricing how it never was.What data? The "everything" data, the most comprehensive financial and monetary compendium yet available: The Financial [...]

Synchronized Not Coronavirus

By |2022-05-17T17:55:34-04:00May 17th, 2022|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There is an understandable tendency to just write off this weekend’s disastrous Chinese data as nothing more than pandemic politics. After all, it has been Emperor Xi’s harsh lockdowns spreading like wildfire across China rather than any disease (why it has been this way, that’s another Mao-tter). Open the cities back up, as many are doing right now, the world [...]

Behind The Inflation Curtain (Europe)

By |2021-07-26T18:18:58-04:00July 26th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

When the ECB’s leadership presented their first QE to the assembled media on March 5, 2015, there was a lot of the usual corporate-speak. It sure wasn’t fedspeak, the purposefully obfuscating wordsmithing of the kind made infamous by Alan Greenspan. No, on this occasion, to the contrary, Mario Draghi, the ECB’s President, wanted to be perfectly clear in what he [...]

Jamie Dimon (Still) Hates Bonds Because Inflation; Other Banks Apparently Love Bonds Because There’s No Credit To Inflation

By |2021-06-18T16:45:41-04:00June 18th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

JP Morgan’s Jamie Dimon hasn’t produced an enviable track record opining on inflationary potential. He’s forever deeply entrenched in the inflation camp, and because he sits atop the corporate structure of one of the world’s biggest and most well-known banks, it does seem reasonable at first how his opinion on monetary matters is taken very seriously – despite repeatedly missing [...]

The Wrong Time(s) For Inflation

By |2021-05-11T19:06:00-04:00May 11th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Forget gazelles, the ongoing post-2008 threat to small and medium-sized businesses had amounted to an unnatural vise squeezing owners and operators in between their persistent inability to access credit and the lack of revenue growth (or even predictability). The biggest businesses thrived, borrowed freely, and then paid shareholders in the form of gross buybacks (a liquidity preference of their own). [...]

Decaying Offshore Money Is A Lot More Than An Offshore Decay

By |2019-03-12T18:51:49-04:00March 12th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

During the first quarter of 2008, as Bear Stearns teetered on the edge of illiquidity, foreign holders of US$ financial assets contributed $9.3 trillion to US credit markets. According to the Fed’s Z1, the Financial Accounts of the United States, it tells us that’s the amount they held in possession from outside the American geographical boundary. Considering at the same [...]

SLOOS Answers The Boom

By |2018-02-13T19:06:13-05:00February 13th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

You find lots of tortured arguments about the state of the economy, largely because the premise starts with the boom and then seeks to find it. If it isn’t currently visible in the data, there is unusual and unearned confidence that the data will have to change in the near future (rather than the past three times we’ve been through [...]

Third Time’s A Charm?

By |2018-01-18T17:30:11-05:00January 18th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I find the article laughable. I should point out I am a millennial male though, so I would think that. We invest in bitcoin because we are BROKE, and you cannot earn any significant amount by working. And honestly, this entire market proves what we all suspected. Working is for suckers, it will not get you ahead, and money makes [...]

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