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cycle peak

Dismal January Rolls On For Now Total Global Trade

By |2015-03-06T11:31:57-05:00March 6th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

More bad news for the rest of the world, or at least the world’s economists, that has been anticipating the US economy as a means by which to expel negative economic forces. The idea of decoupling is not just something that suggests the US economy is moving contrary to all the rest, but also the sole source of hope for [...]

Crude and Credit Warn Of The Elongated Cycle Double Peak

By |2014-11-19T15:47:32-05:00November 19th, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Next to Japan’s “unexpected” re-acquaintance with recession, the most serious indication of global economic distress has to be oil prices. And where commentary turned to “explaining” Japanese recession as related to a small attempt at fiscal discipline rather than the more debilitating flirtation with intentional debasement, convention surrounding the precipitous plunge in crude is desperately trying to direct toward “supply.” [...]

WSJ: Spring Without Much Bounce

By |2014-07-11T14:53:41-04:00July 11th, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

You hear it repeated incessantly that the US economy is consumer-driven, and perhaps it is in some very narrow aspects. The idea, however, that consumption accounts for 70% of the economy is false, a figure derived from GDP calculations that include, among other artificial creations, an imputation for homeowner rent equivalence (BEA estimates how much a homeowner might pay themselves [...]

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