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Data Revisions

Red Flags Over Labor

By |2019-11-06T20:49:07-05:00November 6th, 2019|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Financial Planning|

NOTE: originally published Friday, Nov 1 Better-than-expected is the new strong. Even I’m amazed at the satisfaction being taken with October’s payroll numbers. While you never focus too much on one monthly estimate, this time it might be time to do so. But not for those other reasons. Sure, GM caused some disruption and the Census is winding down, both [...]

Durably Sideways

By |2019-04-25T17:23:03-04:00April 25th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Next month, in the durable goods series, the Census Bureau will release the results of its annual benchmark changes. In May 2019, the agency will revise the seasonal adjustments going back to January 2002. Unadjusted data will not be, well, further adjusted. None of this, apparently, will include any information gleaned from the comprehensive 2017 Economic Census. I haven’t closely [...]

Downturn Rising, No ‘Glitch’ In Retail Sales

By |2019-03-11T12:26:52-04:00March 11th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

You just don’t see $4 billion monthly retail sales revisions, in either direction. Advance estimates are changed all the time, each monthly figure will be recalculated twice after its initial release. Typically, though, the subsequent revisions are minor rarely amounting to a billion. Four times that? Last month, the Census Bureau reported that retail sales during the Christmas holiday were [...]

Revisions, Revisions, Revisions

By |2012-12-12T17:13:27-05:00December 12th, 2012|Markets|

In the context of the now-permanent establishment of QE, there was little note of the downward revisions to the Fed’s economic “forecast” for both 2012 and 2013. The revisions were minor in the, of course, downward direction, but we just need to give them time to be fully downgraded. Last December, the FOMC said the following with regard to economic [...]

Employment & Revisions

By |2012-12-07T16:26:05-05:00December 7th, 2012|Markets|

The headline in the Establishment survey was quite a bit better than expected, but once again it was at odds with most of the rest of the employment report. The Household survey fell by 122,000 reported jobs, while 350,000 people left the labor force. The number of estimated persons not in the labor force rose to an all-time high of [...]

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