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decoupling

There’s Two Sides To Synchronize

By |2021-03-01T16:27:46-05:00March 1st, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The offside of “synchronized” is pretty obvious when you consider all possibilities. In economic terms, synchronized growth would mean if the bulk of the economy starts moving forward, we’d expect the rest to follow with only a slight lag. That’s the upside of harmonized systems, the period everyone hopes and cheers for. What happens, however, when it’s the leaders rather [...]

Retail Sales In Bad Company, Decouple from Decoupling

By |2019-04-01T12:22:47-04:00April 1st, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

In a way, the government shutdown couldn’t have come at a more opportune moment. As workers all throughout the sprawling bureaucracy were furloughed, markets had run into chaos. Even the seemingly invincible stock market was pummeled, a technical bear market emerged on Wall Street as people began to really consider increasingly loud economic risks. There had been noises overseas, troubling [...]

Downturn Is Everywhere

By |2019-03-22T12:47:15-04:00March 22nd, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Europe is a total mess, no one can (honestly) argue otherwise. But that’s just Germany and France, right? PMI’s in those countries were a disaster. Those reported for the US weren’t really all that bad. Weaker, sure, hardly the obvious sinking especially when compared to German manufacturers. IHS Markit’s flash US Manufacturing Index for March 2019 was 52.5. This was [...]

The Minus Signs Return…

By |2019-01-08T12:13:55-05:00January 7th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Ambiguity favors the path of least resistance. If there isn’t any direct refutation of the thing everyone believes in, everyone will continue to believe in that thing and only that thing. Human nature. In economy terms, people respond near exclusively to negative numbers. This is less evolution and more a process of modern times. There is a very strong attachment [...]

Just In Time For The Circus

By |2018-12-14T15:35:32-05:00December 14th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Just in time to follow closely upon yesterday’s European circus, IHS Markit piles on with more of the same forward-looking indications looking forward the wrong way. Mario Draghi says the ECB is ending QE, good for him. The central bank will do this despite balanced risks rebalancing in a different place. The more bad news and numbers stack up the [...]

China’s (not) SAFE

By |2018-11-07T19:19:16-05:00November 7th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In another sign of repeating 2015, the Chinese are beginning to mobilize their “reserves” again. Three years ago, in a futile attempt to staunch CNY’s stubborn “devaluation” various government authorities blew through just about $1 trillion. It didn’t work. You would think that everyone could learn from this episode. I think the Chinese did, which is why in 2017 they [...]

Global Means Global; ‘Dollar’ Means Trouble

By |2015-01-27T16:23:23-05:00January 27th, 2015|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In addition, and very much related, to durable and capital goods disappointment, some major bellwether earnings have weighed on jubilation over the “robust” economy. Caterpillar in particular was troubling, but as the lineup of excuses expands, the idea of “decoupling” is now even more pronounced. So, in addition to the energy sector dragging down earnings, overseas results will also add [...]

China Profoundly Disagrees With FOMC Assessments

By |2014-09-17T15:16:31-04:00September 17th, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy|

With Brazil in recession and much of the “resource” part of the supply chain nearing that or worrying about it, you can surely bet that there are “unexpected” problems in the Chinese economy. As much as the word “decoupling” is being used once again (though in 2008 it was reversed, with the world supposedly able to decouple from US weakness) [...]

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