demand

COT Black: Powell Better Thank Congress While He Can

By |2018-08-28T12:02:04+00:00August 28th, 2018|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Who can Jerome Powell thank for the PCE Deflator? Not Janet Yellen who handed off to him instead “transitory” factors. Nor was it globally synchronized growth which was supposed to have been the deciding element. Instead, it appears more and more that the only place where Chairman Powell might legitimately offer his gratitude is the [...]

The Simple Economics of What Really Matters

By |2018-06-18T17:45:29+00:00June 18th, 2018|Markets|

The very idea of a labor shortage is supposed to be strictly an economic concept. No longer. It is now wielded almost exclusively in political terms. Anecdotes about how companies are unable to find workers pepper most commentary on the labor market if only because there is no (none) direct statistical evidence that a nationwide [...]

Reduced Trade Terms Salute The Flattened Curve

By |2017-12-05T12:43:14+00:00December 5th, 2017|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Census Bureau reported earlier today that US imports of foreign goods jumped 9.9% year-over-year in October. That is the second largest increase since February 2012, just less than the 12% import growth recorded for January earlier this year. In both monthly cases, however, the almost normal rates of increase which would have at least [...]

Synchronized Global Not Quite Growth

By |2017-11-03T18:08:54+00:00November 3rd, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Going back to 2014, it was common for whenever whatever economic data point disappointed that whomever optimistic economist or policymaker would overrule it by pointing to “global growth.” It was the equivalent of shutting down an uncomfortable debate with ad hominem attacks. You can’t falsify “global growth” because you can’t really define what it is. Japan [...]

Harvey’s Muted (Price) Impact On Oil

By |2017-09-13T16:41:02+00:00September 13th, 2017|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The impact of Hurricane Harvey on the Gulf energy region is becoming clear. There have been no surprises to date, even though the storm did considerable damage and shuttered or disrupted significant capacity. Most of that related to gasoline, which Americans have been feeling in pump prices. According to the US Department of Energy, as [...]

GDP (and Revisions) Confirms The Curves

By |2017-07-28T18:04:20+00:00July 28th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Real Gross Domestic Product expanded by 2.54% in Q2 2017, below most estimates including the final one from the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model. That latter method was close once again in its final days (+2.8%), but earlier in the quarter was predicting GDP growth of 4.3%. That would have been like what many people were [...]

Forget Draghi, Crude Matters

By |2017-06-28T18:14:48+00:00June 28th, 2017|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Despite Mario Draghi’s supposedly misinterpreted comments earlier this week, there are global indications that the best of this round has already been reached. Policymakers are always going to claim things are improving, that much is given. But there is tremendous difference between that and what has occurred, especially if it is indeed rolling over worldwide. [...]