The problem with the employment report is not just about how it is calculated but more so that it is taken as the definitive measure of economic performance. The notion itself, conceptually at least, isn’t assaultive as the modern economy is entirely about the division of labor and specialization, so anything that deals in that subject matter is already in [...]
Recognizing the danger of relying too much on a PMI, the official version of the Chinese PMI not only disappointed absent any detectable rebound it also contained at least a superficial indication that the US isn’t experiencing one either. Overall, the PMI stayed right at 50, for whatever that might be worth, but several key subcomponents moved deeper below that [...]
The Chinese lunar year always offers difficulty with Chinese economic figures, and this year was perhaps heightened in that respect since the New Year fell rather late on February 19. That suggests less dependable interpretations especially about February figures. So after rising a suspicious 48.3% in February, Chinese exports (in US$’s) are down 15% in March even though they were [...]
The wholesale sales and inventory figures were significantly revised this month going back more than a decade. The largest revisions were evident after 2007, which changes slightly the depth of the Great Recession and the “briskness” of the stunted recovery thereafter. Though both sales and inventory figures are much higher than previously believed (until they get revised again), the economic [...]
To add depth to the consumer credit version of consumer inclinations in 2015, Gallup’s estimates of daily spending in March came in at $86. That was only $4 greater than February’s $82 which hadn’t rebounded at all from January. In other words, there is “something” wrong with consumers so far in 2015, even as compared to prior years of lethargy. [...]
In viewing incoming data for January, it looked as if the “dollar” being exactly right about the US economy’s place within the falling global economy was increasingly correct. At that time, the declines in many accounts were way beyond even what we saw of 2014’s “snowy” disruption. That itself suggested that any repeat in 2015 was more than simple repetition, [...]
So far the economic retrenchment has persisted into February, outlasting any significant January weather. The latest worrisome figures came in the form of durable goods and especially capital goods. The former is another peg in the consumption side while the latter is one of the few glimpses of wealth creation (if far from a complete one). Both sides, demand and [...]
The continued release of increasingly bad data serves to further isolate the payroll report as something residing only of its own accord. There are far more relevant pieces of evidence that are clearly free of overly-dependent assumptions about factors that are less and less relevant to the actual economy as it exists post-crisis – and really post-2012. While the Establishment [...]
There were several updates in the crude oil data flow, including the latest “unexpectedly” huge increase in inventory that pushed spot WTI back below $50 yet again. The US EIA estimated that domestic inventory rose by a gargantuan 10.3 million barrels, far exceeding predicted builds. That figure has to include oil being shipped to the US to be stored in [...]
Crude oil futures have been quite volatile of late, particularly in the front months where even the slightest changes in expectations of whatever factor (rig counts, CEO comments, etc.) send WTI surging or tumbling by turn. Despite that, however, the outer years on the curve have seen not just more stability but a steady downward pressure of late. I think [...]
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