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discretionary spending

No Oil ‘Windfall’ Either

By |2015-02-11T17:33:07-05:00February 11th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The problem with a high rate of inventory build is that it eventually has to go somewhere. In an actual economic “boom” that isn’t much of a concern as businesses remain relatively confident that even if inventory is high in one month it will be easily disposed, profitably, in the next. That is the dominant narrative that seems to be [...]

It’s Not What You Think When They Have to Totally Reconfigure The Savings Rate

By |2014-12-23T16:20:04-05:00December 23rd, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There is a lot to say about the latest GDP revisions, particularly as it relates to the breakdown of the measure in comparison with something besides itself. The headline was all that was needed to “confirm” the best economic growth in decades, though. “There is a positive feedback loop going on at the moment,” Mike Jakeman, global analyst for the [...]

Discretionary Spending Without Much Discretion

By |2014-12-08T16:49:23-05:00December 8th, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The recession-like “stimulus” of recent vintage doesn’t seem to have affected the movie business. The Thanksgiving weekend is typically devoid of tremendous or blockbuster new titles for obvious reasons. However, just like people failed to show up at the mall they also skipped the theater. As I have noted before, this is not because movies are mostly narrowly-tailored junk, as [...]

Beyond Gallup

By |2014-07-25T15:44:30-04:00July 25th, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Since I believe the Gallup poll estimates to be significant, I want to revisit them with the addition of one more factor which I think further illustrates the distinct lack of progress toward escape velocity. By Gallup’s own definitions, they ask respondents (with representative sampling techniques, including a 50% landline/50% cell mix) what they spent yesterday apart from homes, autos [...]

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