Brazil’s stock market was rocked yesterday by politics. The country’s “populist” President, Jair Bolsonaro, said he was going to name an army general who had served with Bolsomito (a nickname given to him by supporters) during that country’s prior military dictatorship as CEO of state-owned oil giant Petróleo Brasileiro SA. Gen. Joaquim Silva e Luna is being installed, allegedly, to [...]
Crude oil prices are exhibiting all the signs of an increasingly difficult funding environment. The front end of the futures curve is being bent dramatically in relation to even close maturities just outside the next few months. Such contango is the obvious imprint of finance, though that is not to say that economic expectations are neutral in the curve. Far [...]
The global dollar situation continues to get muddied by divergent and apparently unrelated factors of significant scale. The Chinese are still not buying UST with nearly the same vigor that was very evident prior to the dollar travails last year (which I still believe is dollar liquidity rather than PBOC intent), while Japan and Belgium have suddenly found themselves infatuated [...]
Back in April, there had been, as I posted yesterday, a change in funding conditions for dollar markets. It was, by most accounts, imperceptible except for the strange secondary collateral and liquidity indications that began to appear with more frequency. Sitting in the intersection between liquidity, monetary policy and the real estate re-bubble, Wellington Denahan, CEO of Annaly Capital, the [...]
The Reserve Bank of India was again spotted in the forex markets, as the rupee again nears its record low against the dollar. While India has myriad problems that add up to foreign exchange imbalances, there is pressure on the dollar as globally firms are finding them harder to come by. That rising dollar has far-reaching implications across already-stressed markets [...]
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