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dollar liquidity

Embroiled by Fed Funds, FRBNY 143 Months After BNP Finally Says ‘Offshore’

By |2019-07-09T16:33:17-04:00July 9th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It was a poignant moment that has gone totally unappreciated. Lost in the noise about subprime mortgages, on August 9, 2007, what actually happened that day represented perhaps the best example of how things worked. Or suddenly didn’t. On the occasion of the 10th anniversary, I recounted the tale of BNP Paribas. You’ve heard of Lehman and Bear Stearns, countless [...]

The Money of Metals; More Gold Beyond Repo

By |2018-06-26T17:23:11-04:00June 26th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In all honesty, I do mean to beat this one particular dead horse. In fact, I intend to pulverize it until there is nothing left but the smallest particulate matter. This is everything that is wrong with how things are right now. Either they are willing to put out what could only be legitimately classified as outright propaganda (lies), or [...]

The Money Of Metals; Or, Inferring Collateral Beyond Repo

By |2018-06-26T13:07:36-04:00June 26th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s been a wild month for copper. June began normal enough for the metal, with the front month futures price (HG1) still ~$3.05 where it had traded since early March. Then, out of nowhere, the price surged. Starting June 4, in a matter of days HG1 was just less than $3.30. It was the highest price of the year and [...]

Non-Randomly Surveying RMB

By |2017-03-22T19:51:01-04:00March 22nd, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

China’s central bank, unlike other central banks, is constantly active almost never resting. Because it is always in motion, the PBOC can seem to be “adding” liquidity at the very same time it might be “draining” it. Its specific actions should never be interpreted as standalone procedures related solely to some unknown policy stance. That is particularly true given that [...]

Rising Dollar = Dollar Shortage = Global Liquidity Shortage

By |2016-11-30T14:17:00-05:00November 30th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Before October 1997, what would become known as the Asian flu was just another opportunity for the mainstream to dismiss what many people, including many prominent, competent people, had been warning about for years before. The usual refrain thrown back at them was some form of “you are missing out.” People, of course, never really learn from these episodes because [...]

All Kinds Of Stock Market Irregularities

By |2016-10-13T18:03:44-04:00October 13th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

A great many asset classes have been moving almost perfectly sideways for months now. That is unusual by any standard, but more so given the circumstances of late 2016. This might be indicative of doubts, some of which are being reinforced by weakness that might be characterized as “unexpected” but really no longer is. Today’s data on Chinese exports is [...]

Waiting For Earnings To Correct? Q1 And Forward EPS Update

By |2016-06-22T12:50:43-04:00June 22nd, 2016|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

EPS estimates are always in the practice of falling over time, so that natural process should be considered when comparing across the movement of the calendar. That said, however, earnings continue to defy projections of a rebound. This is not to say that analysts aren’t expecting one, only that the expectation keeps pushing further out in time. According to Howard [...]

Confirming the Shallow State of Bills

By |2015-12-22T17:12:15-05:00December 22nd, 2015|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The ongoing money market adjustment remains ongoing; perhaps that tautology is the most that can be interpreted from continuing mixed signals to this point though the longer nonconformities continue the more innocence is threatened. Recognizing again that this is still early in the process, there are some indications that resistance is real and even understandable. That begins first with the [...]

Payroll Reports Sink ‘Dollar’ Further

By |2015-10-02T12:58:13-04:00October 2nd, 2015|Bonds, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The doubts about the payroll report were taken as no doubts at all in “dollar” trading. The three indications I gave yesterday in terms of representing liquidity were all pushed farther after the jobs data essentially confirmed the direction where this is all likely heading. While the yen may have been more muted, and the “shock” wearing off in later [...]

‘Dollar’ Again; Exits Appreciably Narrower

By |2015-09-18T17:54:33-04:00September 18th, 2015|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

While outward asset markets have clearly been upended by the implications (at long last) of the Fed not doing anything, the internals of the money/”dollar” markets are actually worse. I don’t know if it could be classified as another forming “dollar” wave, but it doesn’t look good from this vantage point heading into an uncertain weekend. In many ways, the [...]

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