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dollar shortage

Failing Math

By |2020-04-06T16:27:30-04:00April 6th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

When it’s all over with, I think we’re going to find out we’ve all been unnecessarily harmed by two stochastic models. And in the greatest tragic irony of them all, it was entirely predictable. These statistical constructions can’t predict a thing, subject as they all are to GIGO limitations (Garbage In, Garbage Out). It’s the math which gives them the [...]

The Empty Bank

By |2020-04-02T19:37:46-04:00April 2nd, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Federal Reserve announced the Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility (SMCCF) on March 23. The intent of this program was to calm the corporate bond market (secondary) then experiencing a massive blowout. Credit spreads of all kinds of corporate securities were exploding, the market in danger of completely shutting down.According to its latest balance sheet statement as of this afternoon, [...]

You Shouldn’t Miss The Cupom

By |2020-02-13T18:56:52-05:00February 13th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I actually wanted to focus on this yesterday but confirmation wasn’t forthcoming until today. So, it ended up being a broader note on the dollar which only included some mention of Brazil in passing. Still a worthwhile couple of minutes. There were rumors that Banco (central) do Brasil was intervening or was going to intervene in its local currency markets, [...]

China’s Dollar Problem Puts the Sync In Globally Synchronized Downturn

By |2019-10-16T16:49:25-04:00October 16th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Because the prevailing theory behind the global slowdown is “trade wars”, most if not all attention is focused on China. While the correct target, everyone is coming it at from the wrong direction. The world awaits a crash in Chinese exports engineered by US tariffs. It’s not happening, at least according to China’s official statistics. The reported numbers aren’t good [...]

Humans Long On Novembers, A World Short On Dollars, US Retail Sales Suggest A Move Into That Second Half

By |2019-10-16T12:44:30-04:00October 11th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The year 2015 started out very rough. While the mainstream tried very hard to make the oil crash into a supply glut and Janet Yellen kept referring to the “best jobs market in decades” as if it that specific combination of words was some sort of incantation, the early months of that year represented a serious stumble. But almost as [...]

The Trade War Check

By |2019-10-11T12:47:26-04:00October 10th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There is no doubt that US tariffs on Chinese goods have negatively impacted US imports of Chinese goods. According to this week’s updated estimates from the Census Bureau, imports from China were down 13.9% in August 2019 compared to August 2018. That was the fourth straight month of double-digit year-over-year declines, and six of the last seven months that bad. [...]

Multipliers and Elasticity: The Other More Consequential Side of Repo

By |2019-10-02T17:31:25-04:00October 1st, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There is increasing skepticism in the mainstream media as to the functions and declarations coming from the Federal Reserve. As a direct consequence of the mid-September repo rumble, for the first maybe ever official opinions and explanations aren’t being taken immediately at face value. That may end up being the lasting legacy of what was otherwise nothing more than a [...]

The China Conundrum

By |2019-09-30T12:30:31-04:00September 25th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It seems as if we’ve found one of those interim periods that often accompany times of uncertainty. Markets, stocks as well as bonds, are in a wait-and-see mode. Either the next shoe drops, as is feared, or the grand response works, as is widely hoped. Which way are the risks perhaps rebalancing? The global downturn that developed late last year [...]

Where The Global Squeeze Is Unmasked

By |2019-09-13T17:34:45-04:00September 13th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Trade between Asia and Europe has dimmed considerably. We know that from the fact Germany and China are the two countries out of the majors struggling the most right now. As a consequence of the slowing, shipping companies have had to make adjustments to their fleet schedules over and above normal seasonal variances. It was reported last week that Maersk [...]

Dollar (In) Demand

By |2019-09-11T12:32:45-04:00September 11th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The last time was bad, no getting around it. From the end of 2014 until the first months of 2016, the Chinese economy was in a perilous state. Dramatic weakness had emerged which had seemed impossible to reconcile with conventions about the country. Committed to growth over everything, and I mean everything, China was the one country the world thought [...]

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