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No Reflation Here: PBOC Balance Sheet Update May (Same As April)

By |2021-06-22T19:03:14-04:00June 22nd, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For the month of May 2021, China’s central bank reported almost exactly the same as it had in April (or March). In the case of foreign assets, as has become standard, nearly identical. Despite reflation dollar flows being described and talked about, they still haven’t reached the official PBOC balance sheet which after so many months of this simply reduces [...]

Where Do We Begin? Define What It Means To Be A Bank

By |2017-01-19T16:05:42-05:00January 19th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It may sound overly basic, but the times being what they are there is a very well deserved need to be elementary about certain things again. That starts with banks and really defining what is and is not one. When money was money, banking was a very simple procedure, though not quite so stylized and rudimentary as it is often [...]

Data Tick In November TIC

By |2017-01-18T18:37:53-05:00January 18th, 2017|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

November was the month where global bonds, particularly sovereign bonds, were routed in synchronized liquidation. As such, we would expect to find among various data sources evidence to suggest a monetary “dollar” background consistent with that fact. What that has meant in the months (and last several years) leading up to it was the foreign official sector in overdrive “selling [...]

‘Dollar’ Shortage Extended Into October Consistent With Current Global Money Indications

By |2016-12-16T16:49:19-05:00December 16th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Chinese have been undergoing quite a bit of stress lately, with markets including stocks more likely to be in turmoil than not. In fixed income, the Finance Ministry was slightly shaken by a failed auction today, its first since summer 2015. Yesterday, government bond futures trading had to be suspended when the 10s and 5s experienced their largest drop [...]

Haven’t We Done This Before?

By |2016-11-21T19:13:40-05:00November 21st, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

It is an apparent contradiction to where we can describe a desperate money supply situation yet stock prices, in particular, are at all-time highs or at least outwardly unconcerned about all of it. This isn’t anything new, however, as noted last week where we may be witnessing the third or fourth iteration of the same repeating cycle. It was, after [...]

History Repeats, And Repeats, And Repeats…

By |2016-11-18T18:08:48-05:00November 18th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

So how does it end? It’s the only question that matters, more so perhaps than asking when this “end” might occur. We see the “dollar” tanking currencies again, though mostly the majors this time, but currencies have tanked for as long as they have floated; and a great many before that time, too. Is there something different now that wasn’t [...]

Remeasuring The ‘Dollar’ Shortage For All Q3

By |2016-11-17T18:53:53-05:00November 17th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Treasury Department’s Treasury International Custody (TIC) estimates for September were released, and though I wish they were timelier they do typically confirm what we suspect about the months at each update. There were negatives all over this latest month, including private flows, which would fit the overall narrative where Chinese money markets were all over the place and repo [...]

Where Do We Begin? No More Targets

By |2016-11-02T18:11:42-04:00November 2nd, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In the seventeenth episode of the second season of the Comedy Central cartoon South Park, the show introduces one of its longest lasting memes that has survived despite the first airing being nearly twenty years ago, and all the vulgarity and seemingly gratuitous violence in between. Titled Gnomes, we find one of the main character’s underpants (seriously) being stolen by [...]

Where Do We Begin? Thinking Seriously About Convertibilty

By |2016-11-01T18:39:55-04:00November 1st, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Throughout Milton Friedman’s (and Anna Schwartz) seminal book A Monetary History he tries to make the case that suspension of convertibility would have alleviated much of the suffering of the Great Depression. It had in the past worked in that sort of capacity, choking off the suffering of systemic runs just enough so that emotion could die down and cooler [...]

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