donald trump

Whose Tightening Is It Anyway?

By |2018-08-21T16:15:14+00:00August 21st, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I suppose it’s only fair. After all, they started it. Earlier in the year, Federal Reserve officials including Chairman Jay Powell suggested it was all Trump’s fault. The abrupt difficulties presented by the dollar were, they said, the result of tax cuts swelling the deficit and thereby threatening capital markets with a “deluge” of Treasury [...]

Global Asset Allocation Update: Tariffs Don’t Warrant A Change…Yet

By |2018-03-09T11:28:10+00:00March 9th, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Global Asset Allocation Update, Investing, Markets, Politics, Stocks|

There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor the allocation to bonds is 50%, risk assets 45% and cash 5%. We have had continued volatility since the last update but the market action so far is pretty mundane. The initial selloff halted at the 200 day moving average [...]

Taking Turns With The B(L)S

By |2017-12-21T18:27:53+00:00December 21st, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The worst aspect of this economy is by far the real effects pressed upon especially American workers. Of that there is no doubt, including young adults who would be working rather than “studying” if the economy was at all like it has been described. The second worst part is watching politicians trade their descriptions for [...]

Political Economics

By |2017-10-20T11:49:25+00:00October 20th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Who President Trump ultimately picks as the next Federal Reserve Chairman doesn’t really matter. Unless he goes really far afield to someone totally unexpected, whoever that person will be will be largely more of the same. It won’t be a categorical change, a different philosophical direction that is badly needed. Still, politically, it does matter [...]

Officially A No-growth World

By |2017-10-19T17:51:45+00:00October 19th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I really don’t think people quite understand just how much trouble China is in right now. That’s no mystery because in the Western media the Chinese economy is almost always described as somewhere between awesome and magnificent (only slight hyperbole). Their government, on the other hand, is not fooled. General Secretary Xi Jinping opened the [...]

Questions

By |2017-08-20T14:39:16+00:00August 20th, 2017|Commodities, Markets, Politics|

Why are profit margins persistently high? With decent earnings this quarter, corporate profits as a % of GDP will approach (maybe exceed) 10% again. That is abnormally high compared to the period 1960 to 2000.  Margins actually started to rise in the mid-80s but really accelerated after 2000 and outside of the 2008 crisis have remained [...]

Global Asset Allocation Update: Not Yet

By |2017-07-17T18:22:01+00:00July 17th, 2017|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Global Asset Allocation Update, Investing, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds is unchanged at 50/50. There are no changes to the portfolio this month. Growth and inflation expectations rose somewhat since last month's update. The change is minor though and within the range of [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Attention Shoppers

By |2017-07-16T14:11:13+00:00July 16th, 2017|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Investing, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor|

The majority of the economic reports over the last two weeks have been disappointing, less than the consensus expectations. The minor rebound in activity we've been tracking since last summer appears to have stalled. Retail sales continue to disappoint and inventory/sales ratios are once again rising - from already elevated levels. Even the positive reports [...]

Questions

By |2017-07-03T12:55:11+00:00July 3rd, 2017|Economy, Markets|

We often have discussions in the office that consist primarily of asking questions. Sometimes they are questions we don't think people are asking enough, sometimes questions we are sick of hearing and most often questions which we can't answer. Not questions that only we can't answer but rather ones that no one can answer based [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Draghi Moves Markets

By |2017-07-02T21:42:45+00:00July 2nd, 2017|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor|

In my last update two weeks ago I commented on the continued weakness in the economic data. The economic surprises were overwhelmingly negative and our market based indicators confirmed that weakness. This week the surprises are not in the economic data but in the indicators. And surprising as well is the source of the outbreak [...]