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As The Fed Seeks To Justify Raising Rates, Global Growth Rates Have Been Falling Off Uniformly Around The World

By |2022-01-05T20:00:52-05:00January 5th, 2022|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Sentiment indicators like PMI’s are nice and all, but they’re hardly top-tier data. It’s certainly not their fault, these things are made for very times than these (piggy-backing on the ISM Manufacturing’s long history without having the long history). Most of them have come out since 2008, if only because of the heightened professional interest in macroeconomics generated by a [...]

Did Last Week Deliver Some Sour Certainty?

By |2021-11-29T19:47:01-05:00November 29th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

This sour/soar stuff goes back many years. The last time we went through the same hysteria (if for different reasons), everyone said the global economy was going to accelerate, take off, and sail onward forever after. The world was, they all claimed, set to soar.Globally synchronized growth. The bond market didn’t just disagree, it did so vehemently, a pessimism when [...]

A Time Recession

By |2019-12-05T19:12:35-05:00December 5th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Eurostat confirmed earlier today that Europe has so far avoided recession. At least, it hasn’t experienced what Economists call a cyclical peak. During the third quarter of 2019, Real GDP expanded by a thoroughly unimpressive +0.235% (Q/Q). This was a slight acceleration from a revised +0.185% the quarter before. The real question, though, is whether the business cycle approach means [...]

Definitely A Downturn, But What’s Its Rate of Change?

By |2019-08-26T18:39:46-04:00August 26th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index (NAI) fell to -0.36 in July. That’s down from a +0.10 in June. By itself, the change from positive to negative tells us very little, as does the absolute level below zero. What’s interesting to note about this one measure is the average but more so its rate of change. The index itself is [...]

Nastier Number Four: A Broader Industrial Base On The Wrong Side

By |2019-07-16T16:20:04-04:00July 16th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There’s always weakness even in the most booming of economies. Even in the real booms, not the 2017 hysteria kind, not all cylinders will be firing. What makes them real, however, is when the vast majority are. The concept behind globally synchronized growth was a valid one, it just never came out in practice. The impression has been incorporated into [...]

Trade Wars Have Arrived, But It’s Trade Winter That Hurts

By |2019-05-09T16:05:28-04:00May 9th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There is truth to the trade war. That’s a big problem because it’s not the only problem. It isn’t even the main one. Given that, it’s easy to look at tariffs and see all our current ills in them. The Census Bureau reports today that the trade wars have definitely arrived. In March 2019, US imports from China plummeted by [...]

China’s Export Story Is Everyone’s Economic Base Case

By |2019-05-08T11:53:08-04:00May 8th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The first time the global economy was all set to boom, officials were at least more cautious. Chastened by years of setbacks and false dawns, in early 2014 they were encouraged nonetheless. The US was on the precipice of a boom (the first time), it was said, and though Europe was struggling it was positive with a more aggressive ECB [...]

Auto Sales The Lowest In Half A Decade, Just Coincidence FCA Will Join Ford, GM Ditching Monthly Sales Estimates

By |2019-05-02T17:37:15-04:00May 2nd, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

FCA, formerly Fiat-Chrysler, is the latest automaker to switch from a monthly sales report. Joining GM and Ford, beginning in October all three of Detroit’s big car companies will be publishing quarterly sales figures. The announcement comes at an auspicious moment. As with the other two, FCA claims the change is being done in the name of transparency. Less reporting [...]

The Rate Cut Boom

By |2019-05-01T11:41:44-04:00May 1st, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

All Presidents love to talk stocks when the stock market is making record highs. It is the one asset class the public knows about. Even the iconic 1980’s movie Wall Street made it seem just that important. The Masters of the Universe are buying equities, so everything has to be awesome. The BSD’s on Wall Street were never stock jockeys, [...]

Bonds and Economists At It Again

By |2019-04-30T18:31:11-04:00April 30th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Federal funds is up again. As of yesterday, the 29th, the effective rate (EFF) is now 5 bps above IOER. That takes it to within 5 bps below the top of the Federal Reserve’s policy range. According to FRBNY, the 1st percentile in yesterday’s session was 2.40%, meaning that almost the entire federal funds market is paying more than IOER. [...]

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