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Always, Always Income

By |2017-12-26T16:34:22-05:00December 26th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Just before Christmas 2014, the Bureau of Economic Analysis upgraded Q3 2014 Real GDP to +5.0%. That represented a huge acceleration from earlier that year when during the depths of its Polar Vortex infused winter Q1 2014 GDP had contracted sharply (according to contemporary estimates). One need not be a betting man to hazard a correct guess as to which [...]

Incomes Slow Some More And (Relatedly) Inflation Remains Absent

By |2016-10-31T17:12:18-04:00October 31st, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Personal Income and Spending continue to suggest only further weakness. While there is a whole lot of caution necessary when analyzing this data due to its susceptibility to large revisions, there is still only further deceleration on both sides of the consumer. Nominal Disposable Personal Income (DPI) was up just 3.4% year-over-year in September 2016, below the 3.8% average of [...]

Statistics of Depression

By |2016-08-02T18:00:05-04:00August 2nd, 2016|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Personal Savings Rate is a rather important economic indication. Because it is derived from the difference between income and spending, it can tell us a great deal about the state of the economy from the consumer perspective. Unfortunately, nobody can say with any degree of confidence what the savings rate is right now, or even what it has been [...]

What To Do About Spending Figures

By |2015-11-25T12:34:13-05:00November 25th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Any reasonably or relatively objective view of the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ estimates for PCE and Personal Income (personal income and outlays) render more questions than answers; more doubts than satisfaction. For one, the series continually undergoes not just heavy revisions and not just at the benchmark continuities, but all over the place. Further, these revisions, particularly between income and [...]

Always Back To Income (Lack Of)

By |2015-10-30T17:59:02-04:00October 30th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Spending and wage growth disappointed in September, particularly as incomes continue to register barely any growth. The fact that this stagnation has continued for several years allows commentary such as this: U.S. consumer spending in September recorded its smallest gain in eight months as income barely rose, suggesting some cooling in domestic demand after recent hefty increases.   The Commerce [...]

No Wonder The Fed’s Desperation To Avoid Admitting the Bunker

By |2015-06-01T16:36:29-04:00June 1st, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Personal spending fell slightly in April, making three of the last five months for declines. Such a sustained slump is actually quite rare, and you have to go back to the Great Recession to find anything like it in recent history. There are a few reasons for this now-accumulated downtrend, but it always starts with income. While personal income has [...]

PCE and Incomes Paint The GDP Problem

By |2015-05-01T11:32:22-04:00May 1st, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The monthly PCE and income figures that were released this week were already incorporated into the advance estimate for Q1 GDP. Given that March wasn’t as bad as it could have been, and that PCE within the GDP report was, that kind of gives you a sense for the serious deterioration in the US consumer; “unexpectedly.” If there is a [...]

Disinflation Is Not Cash

By |2015-03-30T16:23:14-04:00March 30th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Personal spending had fallen, seasonally-adjusted, for two consecutive months placing warning upon the household sector. The just-released estimates for January show only the smallest of rebounds, just +0.1%, in February suggesting that nothing yet has been resolved in either direction. Unlike last year, there is no surge that would indicate a temporary straying from the otherwise only tepid path. This [...]

Optimism/Pessimism: Stocks At Record Highs While Savings Rate Jumps

By |2015-03-02T18:07:08-05:00March 2nd, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Stocks had a great day today unshaken by whether the manufacturing part of the economy was growing more quickly or at the slowest rate in 13 months. Confusion isn’t part of the asset inflation lexicon. In economic news, the U.S. manufacturing sector had its best gains since October, according to Markit's final Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index that rose to 55.1 [...]

There Are No ‘Tailwinds’

By |2015-02-03T13:10:09-05:00February 3rd, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

With the Chinese manufacturing indications “unexpectedly” disappointing over the weekend it was absolutely no surprise that US estimates of income and especially spending would as well. These overall, broader figures align closely with other indications of a dangerously weak household sector, very much explaining why the rest of the world is screaming about impending contraction. For all that intuitive sense [...]

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