An Economic Perspective Of Earnings
With today’s slight downward revision to Q1 ’13 GDP, apologies to Eric Rosengren, comes the preliminary estimate of corporate profits. Corporate earnings estimated here by the BEA are sometimes quite different from those estimated by Standard & Poors, for example. One major difference is the S&P focus on earnings per share, where the BEA is .. read more
Commonality in Earnings
General Electric Revenue: $35 billion, -0.5% Y/Y Net Income: $3.6 billion, +13% Y/Y EPS (GAAP): $0.35/share, +17% Y/Y Organic Revenue -6% Europe revenue -17% Service revenue in Europe -22% Sales in Core Industrial Equipment & Services -6% (-11% profit) Sales in Power Generation and Water Treatment -26%, (-39% profit) GE Capital Revenue (ex NBC sale) .. read more
Economic Optimism Missing From US Data As Well
Final revisions to Q4 2012 GDP were out today, with little surprise nor any major changes. Personal consumption expenditures were slightly lower, from adding 1.52% to GDP in the advance estimate, to 1.47% in the first revision and finally down to 1.28%. To underscore just how weak these figures are, real gross domestic purchases (the .. read more
Is Cyprus A Tipping Point?
Could tiny Cyprus with a population of less than 1 million be the undoing of the Euro experiment? It seems surreal to think that such a tiny country, representing less than a quarter percent of Euro GDP could be the trigger for the unraveling of an entire continent’s currency but it is often small countries .. read more
Only One Can Be Right
So, which is it, Larry Fink (Blackrock), “I’m hyperbullish on the US economy” or Federal Express? I don’t think they can both be right. Mr. Fink, for his part, is conforming to the sell side script. FDX, for its part, is conforming to the monetarist script – lower earnings, reduce capex, reduce headcount, increase stock .. read more
Half Time, Q4 Earnings Season
Through January 31, about 54% of companies had reported and digested earnings announcements. Current estimates for operating earnings have been trimmed all the way back to $23.83 for S&P 500 companies, representing a year-over-year change of 0.42%. However, given the lack of momentum and the number of companies that have lowered and preannounced lower, Q4 .. read more
Aflac Earnings, Q4 FY’12
Aflac’s earnings this week beat consensus estimates by a penny, $1.48 v 1.47, which equates to 2.1% growth . The commentary centered around positive operating execution, small write-offs in the investment portfolio and on-going challenges with global currencies. My sense is that the stock has reacted negatively to CEO comments which reiterated guidance but cautioned .. read more
Google Earnings, Q4 FY’12
The main take away from this quarter’s earnings release is the following: Torrid top line growth. 32.5 yoy% 24.8 5yr CAGR% But, the growth has been expensive, lower margins (25.43% down from 32.22%): Therefore, bottom line growth has slowed. 10.8 yoy% 20.7 5yr CAGR% Google makes the majority of their money as an advertiser. .. read more
