Rhetorically, I wondered yesterday what it was that economists and the media were actually looking at when opining about certain economic topics. That was in relation to German factory orders which are clearly moving in the “wrong” direction, to which that is supposed to be set aside in favor of “sentiment” and the ephemeral “confidence.” Neither of those words really [...]
In the days before 2007, the idea of monetary “stimulus” was relatively straight-forward in theory as well as (seemingly) practice. A central bank declared that it would reduce an interest rate target and the “market” would respond by doing the work for it. In other words, all that was needed was an indication and banks would make it so as [...]
So far Europe’s QE is having some trouble gaining pace. As of March 13, the ECB reports that €9.7 under the Public Sector Purchase Program has been carried out, or about half the rate that was anticipated. That may come as a shock to those not familiar with the ECB’s heightened action of the past eight months, but it is [...]
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down a bit over 100 points last week but that hardly does justice to a week with multiple triple digit swings. Three of the last six trading days have seen a move of at least 1%, a level of volatility that must be unnerving to anyone who thought the last few years were representative of [...]
With the ECB set to plan on doing some QE, without much by way of reassurance that it can actually be accomplished, the central bank updated its modeled projections for QE’s success. That part was easy for them as they always assume at the outset that QE will do what they say QE does, though it is interesting just by [...]
France was the latest Eurozone country to announce officially an entrance into negative “inflation.” The French were very cautious, overly it might be said, to assure that such an outcome was not at risk of pushing that economy into “deflation.” Apparently, rigidity in wages from socialism is a factor as an economic buffer, though left unanswered is where such an [...]
With Greece relenting on its game of chicken with the Eurozone noose, you have to wonder how much the ELA and the threat of total financial meltdown pushed that direction. From the view of credit markets in Europe, there was an unusual almost confidence in such an outcome from the moment of the election last month. Small wonder when Europe [...]
In an effort to prove that the Federal Reserve and ECB are not that far apart in at least philosophical terms, the European Central Bank released minutes from its historic QE meeting in January. Whereas the Fed has been using circular logic to “justify” at least bluffing toward rate hikes, the ECB apparently has done the same to “justify” QE. [...]
I’ve had my suspicions for some time that December saw a(n) (il)liquidity event throughout the “dollar” system. The problem with that supposition is the lack of corroborating price action in riskier markets where you would expect the most impact. That was the pattern revealed by the end of the last event on October 15, where risky credit, especially corporate junk [...]
For the first time in thirty-five months, overall lending in Europe was higher year-over-year. Not since January 2012 had that been the case, as shrinking in lending was a de facto monetary limit on where the ECB wants the European economy to go. And while one month is not necessarily the start of a durable trend, indications had been for [...]
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