econometric models

One More For Euro$ #5: The Mainstream Downgrade Parade

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2022-04-26T17:55:30-04:00April 26th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It wouldn’t be Euro$ #5 without perhaps the last of its rituals completed: the mainstream downgrades. Go back in time to each of the prior episodes, markets change, the data inflects, and then only later do surprised, shocked Economists at whichever establishment outpost begin to recalculate their DSGE outputs. Every time.Way back in 2015, it took the IMF’s semi-annual World [...]

Inside and Outside, Market and Models Actually Agree On A Final Failing Grade For Yellen

It was another pretty embarrassing day for the Federal Reserve and its policymaking body the FOMC. The latter voted, as expected, to raise the federal funds corridor (or double floor, if you can’t get over IOER fail) by another 25 bps. The long end of the Treasury bond market, however, was bid pushing yields down not up. There is a [...]

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