Productivity estimates were better in Q2 than certainly Q1, even revised, but that still doesn’t change the clear disassociation between the BLS’s version of the economy and the BEA’s. That disparity becomes even messier as the BEA’s last benchmark revision sawed off significant “output” dating back to the now-recognized 2012 slowdown. In tandem, the BLS only revised hours worked (back [...]
When the BLS models payroll expansion they don’t actually count payroll expansion. In the 1960’s, economic accounting shifted to mostly stochastic processes which changed the way mainstream economic statistics were calculated and kept. We all know, particularly recently, about how these data series are constantly revised, and often by more than minor adjustments, but that in some ways obscures the [...]
Like the initial or preliminary GDP report in Japan for Q3, the first revision caught almost every economist totally the wrong way. Expectations were for upward re-figuring which should have been taken as a contrarian signal. And sure enough, December’s revisions to Q3 GDP were in the opposite direction as expected, and for all the reasons that economists are “experts” [...]
There are a few more pieces of economic accounts to put together before the disaster of a first quarter can be left behind (if only until the next set of revisions). A major part of the economic picture is derived from productivity, as that feature defines sustainability and ties together labor growth with productive investment. Capitalism is the combination of [...]
The Japanese revised GDP accounts for the 2013 4-6 period has gone pretty much the way of the export-import data. It reveals not only the lack of depth in understanding the numbers on the part of the media (and most economists), it is actually a useful example of some of the primary flaws in the expenditure approach itself. The Wall [...]
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