economic boom

It’s Taking Too Long, The Boom Didn’t Boom

By |2018-07-12T16:34:28+00:00July 12th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

At some point, the boom had to have boomed. We are moving into the past tense for all this now, inflation hysteria almost certainly tucked away into the economic ledger alongside four other false dawns. Data is coming in for June 2018, meaning half of this year already recorded and analyzed. It’s not what it [...]

Three Months Now of After-Harvey Retail Sales; or, The Boom Narrative Goes Boom

By |2018-03-14T16:39:28+00:00March 14th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

If indeed this inflation hysteria has passed, its peak was surely late January. Even the stock market liquidations that showed up at that time were classified under that narrative. The economy was so good, it was bad; the Fed would be forced by rapid economic acceleration to speed themselves up before that acceleration got out [...]

The Dismal Boom

By |2018-01-24T16:46:48+00:00January 24th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There is a fundamental assumption behind any purchasing manager index, or PMI. These are often but not always normalized to the number 50. That’s done simply for comparison purposes and the ease of understanding in the general public. That level at least in the literature and in theory is supposed to easily and clearly define [...]

Secular Stagnation Or The Cusp Of A Boom?

By |2014-09-01T14:59:13+00:00September 1st, 2014|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Investing, Markets, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

I've mentioned several times recently that within Alhambra we often have vigorous debates about the economy and markets. I'm a big believer in the power of competition to improve outcomes whether we are talking about the macro economy or the micro debates about portfolio strategy in which we engage. The debates we have internally are [...]