economic forecasting

Wholesale Problems

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2015-02-10T17:59:59-05:00February 10th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

One of the primary criticisms I have leveled against economic interpretations based solely on statistics like GDP is that they are relative in the narrowest sense. GDP especially compares one quarter to the prior, meaning that it is susceptible to those that extrapolate short-term trends. In this current age of monetary elongation in the “business cycle”, that is a dangerous [...]

The Art & Science Of Investing

In last week's update I mentioned that within our own shop we often have disagreements about the economy and markets. Based on my email flow, that seems to have surprised and possibly confused some people. So, I want to spend some time this week talking about investing more generally rather than concentrating on the week to week data flow and [...]

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