No Bottom In Europe, A New King of the PIIGS
The bounce for Germany seems to be over, and, much like US manufacturing, there appears the mini cycle. Markit PMI for Germany: Both the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment and IFO Business Climate Surveys disappointed expectations, as sentiment in Germany looks to have passed an inflection and rolled over again in sympathy with manufacturing. For .. read more
We’re All Monetarists Now
Japan last week announced a radical plan to finally slay the deflation dragon that has stalked their economy for the last 25 years. The sheer magnitude of the BOJ’s program should put to rest once and for all whether monetary policy can truly work as the growth tonic that policy wonks such as Ben Bernanke .. read more
Buy Low, Sell High
Buy low, sell high. It is one of the most abused of market axioms and says both quite a lot and nothing at all. Of course you need to buy assets when they are cheap and sell them when they are dear but low and high aren’t exact terms and are, like beauty, amorphous qualities .. read more
Batten Down The Hatches
Back in November I wrote a weekly commentary that I called Looking For Silver Linings. The market had been taking a beating in the post election period and I wasn’t feeling particularly good about my forecasting skills. I had written a commentary just two weeks before arguing that the election really didn’t matter that much .. read more
Looking For Silver Linings
John Templeton, one of the greatest investors of all time, said that investors should buy at the point of maximum pessimism. Nothing illustrates the adage of something being easy to say and hard to do more than that statement. It is of course at the point of maximum pessimism that our natural psychological barrier to .. read more
Brother, Can You Spare A Euro?
By Brian Cronin: I am old enough to remember the horrendous conflict in the Congo in the 1960s. The players: Patrice Lumumba, Joseph Kasavubu, Dag Hammarskjold and Moise Tschombe of the breakaway province of Katanga are all still clear memories. What is also clear, unfortunately, is the question asked by a particularly insensitive British TV .. read more
How Much Of The Future Can We Borrow For Today?
Ben Bernanke wants you to borrow and spend today. He also wants you to stop buying safe investments like Treasuries, CDs and anything else with a guarantee attached. He wants you to buy corporate bonds, junk bonds and stocks. He really, really wants you to buy a house. What he doesn’t want you to do .. read more
Wile E. Coyote Monetary Policy
Remember those Road Runner cartoons when you were kid? The hapless Coyote chased the Road Runner, laying trap after trap for him which all failed in some spectacular fashion with the Coyote inevitably bearing the brunt of the destruction. In almost every episode there came a time when the Coyote found himself rushing toward a .. read more
