economic growth

Weekly Market Pulse: An Economic Overview

By |2024-03-18T07:43:45-04:00March 17th, 2024|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Newsletter, Real Estate, Stocks|

Over the last two years, the evolution of the US economy has been driven by a return to “normal”. The distortions of the response to COVID had a profound impact on the economy that I believe will persist for many years. The change in cash levels at the household level were large and have proved more persistent than most expected. [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Dare To Be Different

By |2024-03-11T08:01:35-04:00March 10th, 2024|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Newsletter, Real Estate, Stocks|

I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been. Wayne Gretzky I took my wife to dinner Saturday night at a local, boutique hotel. The Willcox Hotel was established in the late 19th century to cater to the Winter Colony of wealthy northerners who spent their winters in South Carolina. Today it still caters to [...]

Market Pulse: Skeptically Optimistic

By |2024-02-05T08:23:37-05:00February 5th, 2024|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Newsletter, Real Estate, Stocks|

The 10-year Treasury Note yield fell 13 basis points last week, a move that would not normally rate any mention whatsoever, but the path of that small decline does. From Monday to Thursday, the yield fell, from high to low, by 34 basis points, a move that added 1.3% to bond prices (Aggregate bond index) in four days. In a [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Surprises

By |2024-01-29T07:30:39-05:00January 28th, 2024|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Newsletter, Real Estate, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

We got the latest report on economic growth last week and it surprised most everyone. Real GDP expanded by an annualized 3.3% in the fourth quarter, well above the consensus estimate of 2%. Nominal GDP expanded an annualized 4.8% quarter to quarter and 5.8% year-over-year. The annualized quarter-to-quarter change is exactly the average annual change since 1990. Real GDP grew [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Is The Recession Finally Here?

By |2024-01-22T07:52:03-05:00January 22nd, 2024|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Newsletter, Real Estate, Stocks|

The financial commentariat first started to worry about recession in April of 2022 when the spread between the 10-year Treasury rate and the 2-year Treasury rate turned negative - the yield curve inverted. It subsequently righted itself to positive territory until July of 2022 and has stayed inverted ever since. Since an inverted yield curve has preceded almost every recession [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Prophets of Doom

By |2023-10-16T08:05:11-04:00October 15th, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

I said a couple of years ago that I thought that once all the distortions were past, we'd be back to where we started prior to COVID, but with more debt. The decade from 2010 to 2020 was the slowest decade of nominal GDP growth since WWII and the prospect of another decade of that wasn't all that appealing but [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Good News Is Good News

By |2023-10-09T07:12:39-04:00October 8th, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

The employment report on Friday seemed like a good one. The unemployment rate was unchanged as the economy added 336,000 jobs in September. The gains were widespread with additions in manufacturing, construction, wholesale trade, retail trade, transportation, warehousing, leisure and hospitality, healthcare and education, and government. Average hourly earnings were up 0.2% for the month and 4.2% year-over-year. It was [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Is The Correction Over?

By |2023-08-21T07:43:46-04:00August 21st, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

Stocks are now down from their late July peak by about 5%. It has been a very orderly pullback with most of the major averages shaving off about the same amount. The exceptions are the NASDAQ, which peaked a little earlier than the S&P, and REITs, both down about 7.5%. The NASDAQ is more volatile than the S&P so it [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Soft Landing?

By |2023-07-31T08:45:04-04:00July 31st, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

You've probably heard the phrase "soft landing" a lot lately. It has, over the last couple of months, become the new economic consensus. The economy continues to perform better than expected despite the Fed raising interest rates steadily - and fairly rapidly - over the last year. The most recent hike was just this past week and put the Fed [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Growth Stocks Win The First Half

By |2023-07-03T07:18:54-04:00July 2nd, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

The first half of the year is over and despite a few bank failures and three more rate hikes by the Fed, stocks and bonds both managed to produce gains in the first six months of 2023. Growth stocks were the big winners as the market for most of the first half was trying to price in rate cuts before [...]

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