economic growth

Monthly Macro Monitor – August 2018

By |2018-08-15T13:36:41+00:00August 15th, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Stocks|

The Q2 GDP report (+4.1% from the previous quarter, annualized) was heralded by the administration as a great achievement and certainly putting a 4 handle on quarter to quarter growth has been rare this cycle, if not unheard of (Q4 '09, Q4 '11, Q2 & Q3 '14). But looking at the GDP change year over [...]

Global Asset Allocation Update

By |2018-08-02T09:20:03+00:00August 1st, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Global Asset Allocation Update, Investing, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

The risk budget is unchanged again this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between bonds and risk assets is evenly split. The only change to the portfolio is the one I wrote about last week, an exchange of TIP for SHY. Interest rates are on the rise again, the 10-year Treasury yield punching [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Welcome To The Slowdown

By |2018-07-07T23:53:47+00:00July 6th, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Investing, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Politics, Stocks|

Welcome to the slowdown. It isn't much - yet - and it may just be a passing phase, but there is little doubt that the US economy has slowed somewhat. The rise in short term interest rates has stalled and the long end of the curve has rallied. The result is a flatter yield curve [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Oil, Interest Rates & Economic Growth

By |2018-05-07T17:53:15+00:00May 7th, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor|

The yield on the 10 year Treasury note briefly surpassed the supposedly important 3% barrier and then....nothing. So, maybe, contrary to all the commentary that placed such importance on that level, it was just another line on a chart and the bond bear market fear mongering told us a lot about the commentators and not [...]

Global Asset Allocation Update: The Certainty of Uncertainty

By |2018-04-16T09:33:49+00:00April 13th, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Global Asset Allocation Update, Markets, Stocks|

There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation to bonds is 50%, risk assets 45% and cash 5%. Stocks continued their erratic ways since the last update with another test of the February lows that are holding - for now. While we believe growth expectations are moderating [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Investing Is Not A Game of Perfect

By |2018-04-10T17:35:14+00:00April 10th, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Stocks|

The market volatility this year has been blamed on a lot of factors. The initial selloff was blamed on a hotter than expected wage number in the January employment report that supposedly sparked concerns about inflation - although a similar number this month wasn't mentioned as a cause of last Friday's selling. The unwinding of [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Embrace The Uncertainty

By |2018-03-27T19:04:05+00:00March 27th, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Stocks|

There's something happening here What it is ain't exactly clear There's a man with a gun over there Telling me I got to beware I think it's time we stop, children, what's that sound Everybody look what's going down There's battle lines being drawn Nobody's right if everybody's wrong Young people speaking their minds Getting [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: The New Normal Continues

By |2018-03-13T21:05:58+00:00March 13th, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Politics, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

There has been a lot of talk about the economic impact of the recent tax reform. All of it, including the analyses that include lots of fancy math, amounts to nothing more than speculation, usually informed by little more than the political bias of the analyst. I am guilty of that too to some degree [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review

By |2018-02-13T12:45:00+00:00February 13th, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor|

Economic Reports Economic Growth & Income Personal income for December was better than expected at up 0.4% on the month and 4.11% year over year. Wages and salaries were up 0.5%. Unfortunately, that rate of rise is not even up to the lower end of the range we've seen in past expansions when 5% income [...]