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economic potential

The FOMC Channels China’s Xi As To Japan Going Global

By |2019-12-11T18:45:19-05:00December 11th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The massive dollar eruption in the middle of 2014 altered everything. We’ve talked quite a lot about what Euro$ #3 did to China; it sent that economy into a dive from which it wouldn’t escape. And in doing so convinced the Chinese leadership to give growth one more try before changing the game entirely once stimulus inevitably failed. In many [...]

The Big One, The Smoking Gun

By |2019-11-26T15:02:25-05:00November 26th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It wasn’t just the unemployment rate which was one of the key reasons why Economists and central bankers (redundant) felt confident enough to inspire 2017’s inflation hysteria. There was actually another piece to it, a bigger piece potentially complimentary and corroborative bit of conjecture. I write “conjecture” because despite how all this is presented in the media there’s very little [...]

Regardless of Recession, We’ve Already Got The Downturn And That’s What Actually Matters

By |2019-11-25T16:47:11-05:00November 25th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index (NAI) fell pretty sharply in October. At -0.71, that’s a reading which suggests the US economy may be operating significantly below trend. Fifty-eight of the 85 monthly indicators which make up the statistic made negative contributions. Of course, “below trend” is an imprecise term and doesn’t by itself stand up to the one question [...]

Writing The New Book On Credit Channel Depression

By |2019-03-26T17:24:00-04:00March 26th, 2019|Markets|

On June 15, 2007, not even two months before worldwide panic would break out, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke was in Atlanta, Georgia, speaking at a monetary policy conference. Sponsored by the Atlanta branch of his organization, as fate would have it Bernanke’s chosen topic was the credit channel for monetary policy. This is something the scholar Bernanke supposedly knew [...]

The Boom Takes Another Big Hit

By |2018-04-10T18:49:21-04:00April 10th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Congressional Budget Act of 1974 requires the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) to produce and release its economic projections and assumptions every year. Typically, the CBO does so under initial assumptions each January. Those estimates are then revised, if necessary, later in the year with more complete information. This past January, however, the release was delayed. As anxious as most [...]

You Really Have To Pick The Right Variable First

By |2017-12-12T15:56:03-05:00December 12th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Ronald Coase was one of the few economists who was easy to admire. There are and have been a few out there, and it was Coase by and large leading the critique of the increasingly detached state of economics (really Economics). In his 1991 Nobel Prize acceptance speech, he was as usual blunt in his admonishments, saying, “I have made [...]

Running Out The Clock; They Really Don’t Know What They Are Doing

By |2017-09-20T16:20:56-04:00September 20th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

If it wasn’t perfectly clear before, and it really was, there is no way it isn’t now. The Fed is not in any way data dependent. The data on the economy remains in some category of insufficient, longer-term stuck much too far in the direction of atrocious. Yet, the central bank will exit anyway because there is nothing left for [...]

Expectations and Acceptance of Potential

By |2017-09-15T17:46:30-04:00September 15th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The University of Michigan reports that consumer confidence in September slipped a little from August. Their Index of Consumer Sentiment registered 95.3 in the latest month, down from 96.8 in the prior one. Both of those readings are in line with confidence estimates going back to early 2014 when consumer sentiment supposedly surged. During that same period, however, consumer spending [...]

The Staggering Costs

By |2017-08-09T17:52:50-04:00August 9th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Markets|

How do we measure what has been lost over the last ten years? There is no single way to calculate it, let alone a correct solution. There are so many sides to an economy that choosing one risks overstating that facet at the expense of another. It’s somewhat of an impossible task already given the staggering dimensions. If someone had [...]

Is It Other Than Madness?

By |2017-04-12T18:55:01-04:00April 12th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

As earnings season begins for Q1 2017 reports, there isn’t much change in analysts’ estimates for S&P 500 companies for that quarter. The latest figures from S&P shows expected earnings (as reported) of $26.70 in Q1, as compared to $26.87 two weeks ago. That is down only $1 from October, which is actually pretty steady particularly when compared to Q4 [...]

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