Economic Reports Scorecard The economic reports since the last update present a dichotomy. While there has been an improvement in the surprises - more better than expected reports - the overall tone of the reports has been fairly negative. Part of the explanation for that is the plethora of regional Fed reports over the last two weeks, almost all of [...]
Like the initial or preliminary GDP report in Japan for Q3, the first revision caught almost every economist totally the wrong way. Expectations were for upward re-figuring which should have been taken as a contrarian signal. And sure enough, December’s revisions to Q3 GDP were in the opposite direction as expected, and for all the reasons that economists are “experts” [...]
Back in November I wrote a weekly commentary that I called Looking For Silver Linings. The market had been taking a beating in the post election period and I wasn't feeling particularly good about my forecasting skills. I had written a commentary just two weeks before arguing that the election really didn't matter that much and my Republican friends were [...]
The cover of Barron's this week says, Outlook: Mostly Sunny. Their Big Money poll shows 55% of the professional money managers they surveyed are bullish on the stock market. If that makes you feel similarly optimistic about the near term outlook for shares, it might interest you to know that 59% of these perennially pollyannish souls were bullish at the same [...]
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