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Economic Trend

Almost Two Years Already, Inventory Indicates Still More Manufacturing Recession To Come In Terms of Time And Depth

By |2016-04-13T18:32:03-04:00April 13th, 2016|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Given the revisions to wholesale sales (downward) and inventories (upward), we knew that the overall inventory imbalance for the whole supply chain would be pushed up somewhat. Total Business Inventory to Sales was 1.41 in February, the second consecutive month at that extreme. And it really is an extreme since the last time we saw such imbalance was November 2008 [...]

Consume Thyself

By |2014-05-01T10:56:39-04:00May 1st, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The term consumer exhaustion can apply to several circumstances, but typically they all relate to exhaustion of resources. Households can appeal to wages, transfers, savings or debt, and usually some combination of the four, to maintain living standards and discretionary budgets. So exhaustion, like that of yesterday’s GDP, could be due to any one segment failing more than the others [...]

Something Is Different About 2012, Durable Goods

By |2012-11-27T16:46:54-05:00November 27th, 2012|Markets|

The month-over-month change in seasonally adjusted durable goods orders appeared to, once again, beat expectations. Absent cyclical and seasonal adjustments, however, the numbers tell a different story. For an explanation of seasonal factors and the vain pursuit of precision, see our post here. Year-over-year, the trend change in 2012 for durable goods mirrors other data we have seen in other [...]

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