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economics

The Pretense Of Knowledge

By |2015-05-25T18:58:23-04:00May 25th, 2015|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

If man is not to do more harm than good in his efforts to improve the social order, he will have to learn that in this, as in all other fields where essential complexity of an organized kind prevails, he cannot acquire the full knowledge which would make mastery of the events possible. He will therefore have to use what [...]

Stimulus

By |2014-10-31T12:07:51-04:00October 31st, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

Under the headling, Kuroda Surprises With Stimulus Boost as Japan Struggles, is the following summation: Today’s decision comes almost 19 months after Kuroda unleashed his initial asset-purchase plan, with the intention of doubling the monetary base. That move similarly drove up stocks and undercut the yen. Since then, a more competitive exchange rate has triggered higher corporate earnings, and asset-price [...]

It’s Not All Oil and Gas

By |2014-08-19T15:42:26-04:00August 19th, 2014|Commodities, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In addition to this morning’s “noisy” and suddenly more tame CPI report, there is a broad-based decline in commodity prices that is more than a little bit outside of “usual” volatility. It should be noted at the start that commodity prices are not always direct reflections of economic activity or expectations for future activity, as other factors intertwine and take [...]

The Jackson Hole Spin

By |2014-08-18T15:26:28-04:00August 18th, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

As is usual at this time of year, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board and FOMC will gain inordinate attention due to the upcoming Jackson Hole assembly. Ben Bernanke in his stint made use of the PR to first introduce his ideas about coming intervention and manipulation. Janet Yellen may or may not do the same, but she will [...]

Bubbles Doing What Bubbles Do

By |2014-04-23T10:24:17-04:00April 23rd, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate|

Economists blaming weather for the real estate/housing “pause” were cautiously optimistic for March ahead of this week’s housing data windfall. Economists expect that sales rose 2.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 450,000 last month, according to a survey by FactSet. New-home buying dipped 3.3 percent in February. Harsh winter storms that month curtailed purchases in the Northeast, [...]

Friday FOMC Memories: Bent Straight Lines

By |2014-04-11T16:53:38-04:00April 11th, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I suppose when your entire task derives from regression-based statistics, there is the tendency to incorporate straight lines into even your own thought patterns. Of course, that leads to self-reinforcing bias and should be canceled by some governing process. Usually that governing process takes the form of applied knowledge (as opposed to math-based knowledge) and plain common sense. In a [...]

A Day For Fallacy

By |2014-04-01T14:14:36-04:00April 1st, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

When I think of April Fool’s Day I have to revert back to the 1990’s. On April 1,1996, Taco Bell thought way, way outside the bun by announcing it had just acquired the Liberty Bell. The fast food chain intended to rename it the Taco Liberty Bell, franchising a not-insignificant piece of American history. Though the company “assured” everyone it [...]

It’s The Math, Stupid

By |2014-02-07T11:46:04-05:00February 7th, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

As we enter the Janet Yellen age of Federal Reserve stewardship, I am perhaps most struck by the contrast with her predecessors. I certainly don’t mean that in reference to her sex, rather her career trajectory and professional history.  Ben Bernanke, for example, while being a Princeton professor, had established a very distinguished record of scholarship, much of which was [...]

Beware Greeks and Gifts

By |2013-11-19T11:05:51-05:00November 19th, 2013|Markets|

In Virgil’s Aeneid, Laocoon advises caution over accepting a large, wooden horse from the Greeks who had been besieging his Troy. His remark, timeo Danaos et dona ferentis, has been roughly translated as, “beware of Greeks bearing gifts”, becoming a timeless and universal parable for the benefits of skepticism. The sudden abandonment of Greek military volition seemed "too good to [...]

Toyota Speaks Truth About Conventional Economics

By |2013-11-06T10:27:02-05:00November 6th, 2013|Markets|

The headline says nothing but good news for Toyota, and by extension the viability of Abenomics. The Japanese carmaker is boosting its guidance for this year in terms of both revenues and profits. And it is all a sham, as this Financial Times article makes clear in very short order. First, the “good”… “Toyota has raised its full-year profit expectations [...]

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