economists

Bonds v. Economists 5

By |2021-04-16T18:48:55-04:00April 16th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Given the historic data for US retail sales, “somehow” the bond market ignored them yesterday (and today). Yields globally fell for the most part, with real yields (TIPS) really discounting the significance of consumers in March. Bonds aren’t buying that this is anything other than temporary.Not surprisingly, the mainstream media refuses not to buy what bonds aren’t. I mean, for [...]

Inflation HyZ1teria #2

By |2020-12-14T19:21:56-05:00December 14th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity. In our specific case here, never attribute to deviousness what is plainly incompetent Economists. Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JP Morgan, though he works atop one of the world’s biggest banking money dealers he got there by being a trained Economist. To bring this home, in March 2008, just [...]

Bonds and Economists At It Again

By |2019-04-30T18:31:11-04:00April 30th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Federal funds is up again. As of yesterday, the 29th, the effective rate (EFF) is now 5 bps above IOER. That takes it to within 5 bps below the top of the Federal Reserve’s policy range. According to FRBNY, the 1st percentile in yesterday’s session was 2.40%, meaning that almost the entire federal funds market is paying more than IOER. [...]

Bonds vs. Economists; The Means to the End

By |2017-12-11T16:52:31-05:00December 11th, 2017|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

As part of its effort to stress its own self-importance, the Federal Reserve conducts a survey of the Primary Dealer members through its New York branch. A written questionnaire is sent out to each bank in advance of every monetary policy meeting. The purpose is for monetary policymakers to make sure that there aren’t any big surprises, that the market, [...]

Is It So Hard To Believe The Textbooks Are All Wrong?

By |2017-06-06T11:46:56-04:00June 6th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

If I was forced to use only one word to describe most that is wrong in the world today it would be “economists.” The global economy is stuck in a depression that has already lasted ten years. Because of it, the world’s social and political order has frayed around the edges and threatens to do much more than that (in [...]

Robust Job Growth Doesn’t Make Sense And The Numbers Show Why

By |2016-02-04T18:37:46-05:00February 4th, 2016|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

With the BLS’s release of Q4 productivity figures, we get to check the BLS’s estimates just in time for tomorrow’s increasingly irrelevant payroll report. That much has become thoroughly apparent especially since the middle of last year as the Establishment Survey and unemployment rate only diverge with the overall breadth of economic indications. With GDP no longer corroborative, the labor [...]

Better To Puzzle About Christmas Apparently Than Dwell On Dismal Back-to-School

By |2015-09-23T15:42:29-04:00September 23rd, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

With back-to-school shopping falling apart, the focus turns quickly to the Christmas season once more. That is fully expected, lest anyone dwell too long on the August spending figures and begin to see through the “strong” economy. August retail sales – as expected – showed the effects of slow mall traffic and comparisons with very strong August results a year [...]

Yellen Just Doesn’t Factor

By |2015-09-16T14:52:32-04:00September 16th, 2015|Markets|

When I wrote on Friday that I was encouraged for the first time in years over the combined rise of Trump and Sanders I meant nothing by way of suggesting either as an actual candidate or what they might do should they pull it out. If anything, I implied that the political situation might have to follow the economy; that [...]

Letting Down The Faithful

By |2015-03-20T15:21:19-04:00March 20th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Typically, economists are not much more than parrots for the officially-modeled results that are run out and treated ahead of time as if they were actually to have happened. If the Fed says it expects 4% growth in 2015, then you can bet almost surely that will be the major point of emphasis all over TV and print (including online). [...]

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