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elongated business cycle

Blatant Similarities

By |2017-05-01T18:36:47-04:00May 1st, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Declines in several of the world’s PMI’s in April have furthered doubts about the global “reflation.” But while many disappointed, some sharply, it isn’t just this one month that has sown them. In China, for example, both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sentiment indices declined to 6-month lows. While that might be erased next month as normal short run volatility, the [...]

Wholesale Problems

By |2015-02-10T17:59:59-05:00February 10th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

One of the primary criticisms I have leveled against economic interpretations based solely on statistics like GDP is that they are relative in the narrowest sense. GDP especially compares one quarter to the prior, meaning that it is susceptible to those that extrapolate short-term trends. In this current age of monetary elongation in the “business cycle”, that is a dangerous [...]

Was Credit Right?

By |2015-01-27T12:36:44-05:00January 27th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There may be something to December after all. It was credit markets that shifted downward (bearish yield curves and credit spreads) dramatically around the end of November and the first few days of December. Given the persistence of large players moving credit and funding markets, this may not be all that hard to fathom with the close proximity of credit [...]

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