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elongated cycle

US/Global Trade Too Suggests Supercycle or Permanent Shrinkage

By |2015-08-05T11:38:09-04:00August 5th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There was absolutely nothing good about the most recent trade data for June. Even what looked like an improvement really wasn’t, suggesting, strongly, that conditions in the global economy are still declining. With Canada falling to recession, blaming a “puzzling” and sharp decline in non-petroleum exports (the US as that nation’s biggest customer), the decline in US import “demand” completing [...]

Business Cycles, Bubbles and Changing Valuations

By |2015-03-13T10:34:54-04:00March 13th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

The function of recession is not just some negative numbers that appear from seemingly nowhere, though that is how convention sees it of “unforeseeable” trends and “shocks. It may take the NBER years in some cases to declare, officially, a cycle peak but that doesn’t mean there aren’t warning signs much closer to the event. Among them is, again, not [...]

Can We Finally Admit There Is A Serious Problem?

By |2015-03-12T10:22:11-04:00March 12th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

We know that credit and funding markets took a nasty turn in December, but it wasn’t until economic data released just recently that we gained a better appreciation about why that might have been. In the relative blindness of “realtime” such market-driven bearishness could be self-contained within purely financial factors alone, and thus opens the possibility of ambiguity about why the [...]

Yet Another Accout Pointing To A Cycle End

By |2015-03-06T10:43:58-05:00March 6th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The continued release of increasingly bad data serves to further isolate the payroll report as something residing only of its own accord. There are far more relevant pieces of evidence that are clearly free of overly-dependent assumptions about factors that are less and less relevant to the actual economy as it exists post-crisis – and really post-2012. While the Establishment [...]

Durable Goods Won’t Cooperate Either

By |2015-02-26T11:17:23-05:00February 26th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Yesterday in trying describe Janet Yellen’s testimony to Congress about the economy, pundits apparently were forced to concede that the “data won’t cooperate”, thus leaving the economy in Yellen’s head to be wholly different than anything described elsewhere outside the media echoes. Today’s release of durable goods provides yet another data point that “will not cooperate” with the dreamland of [...]

Retail Sales Confirm Dark Black Friday

By |2014-12-11T12:56:46-05:00December 11th, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The initial indications from private retail metrics on the Black Friday kickoff were not good, though numerous attempts to downplay those results were initiated. The monthly retail sales figures from the Census Bureau will make that much harder as they square with the downbeat Black Friday estimates. In other words, Black Friday wasn’t “off” because consumers were “pulled” to shop [...]

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