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emerging markets

Global Asset Allocation Update

By |2019-10-23T15:11:51-04:00April 8th, 2016|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

The risk budgets are again unchanged for this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds remains at 40/60. The changes in our indicators this month were not significant enough to warrant a change. Credit spreads stopped narrowing and have recently been widening again, ever so slightly. Valuations, long term momentum and the yield curve [...]

It’s Hard Being A Bear

By |2016-03-23T14:13:35-04:00March 23rd, 2016|Alhambra Research, Markets, Stocks|

Global stock markets, especially in the US, have made a furious comeback from the lousy start of the year. At its worst level the S&P 500 was down 11% year to date and 15% from its peak late last spring. At that nadir the market was trading at roughly the same level as November of 2013, over two years of [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review

By |2016-03-18T14:14:07-04:00March 18th, 2016|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Stocks|

Economic Reports Scorecard The economic data calendar has been light the last two weeks but the tone of the data has generally improved. On the whole though I find it hard to discern a big change in the US economy. The two manufacturing surveys were bright spots in the ongoing manufacturing recession. Empire State and Philly Fed both were much [...]

Global Asset Allocation Update

By |2019-10-23T15:11:51-04:00March 11th, 2016|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

The risk budgets this month are again unchanged. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds remains at 40/60 versus the benchmark of 60/40. The changes in our indicators since last month's update have not been sufficient to warrant a change. Credit spreads did narrow significantly over the last month but the widening trend is still [...]

The Monetary Spectacle of the Brazilian Warning

By |2016-03-03T18:04:20-05:00March 3rd, 2016|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

During the global end of the Great Recession, Brazilian GDP contracted year-over-year in just three quarters. The worst was about -2.5% in Q1 2009, but by Q1 2010 GDP was rising 9% again. With the latest update today, Brazil’s GDP declined by just less than 6% year-over-year in Q4, representing the seventh consecutive contraction that doesn’t look to be ending [...]

Who Owns/Holds/Funds All This?

By |2016-02-11T18:20:48-05:00February 11th, 2016|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Mainstream commentary will continue to harp on the unemployment rate as if it were some kind of lucky charm for protection against an increasingly unrecognizable and frightening (to the orthodoxy) world around it. That appeal dominates even where it has so little if any bearing, as in negative swap spreads that were in truth an easy and simple warning about [...]

Slim Pickings in 2015

By |2015-12-27T02:26:02-05:00December 27th, 2015|Bonds, Commodities, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

Major Asset Classes with Positive Total Returns US Reits - 2.62% US Large Caps (SP500) - 2.2% Munis (3yr) - 1.16% Emerging Market Bonds - 1.08% US Bonds - 0.76% Cash - 0.02% Unfortunately, 2015 was not a great year for diversified portfolios. Kudos to those who owned Japan, Europe, US Large Cap Growth, Foreign Small Caps, Preferred Stock and [...]

The End of the Beginning

By |2015-12-02T11:19:42-05:00December 2nd, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The call for minimizing the onrushing downdraft has continued, particularly in the wake of yesterday’s huge disappointment in the ISM. Where the “12%” figure had slowly entered the mainstream lexicon before, it has fast become fully incorporated into any article’s template. There are hardly any pieces about the curious manufacturing recession that don’t mention it, as it has evolved into [...]

Things Everybody Knows…

By |2015-11-28T19:45:17-05:00November 28th, 2015|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

It ain't so much the things we don't know that get us into trouble. It's the things we know that just ain't so.   Mark Twain Mark Twain probably wasn't thinking of investors when he wrote those words, but truer ones have rarely been written. Investors routinely become overconfident in their assessment of economic and market conditions. They assume that [...]

Math Is Money Is Physical Oil

By |2015-11-13T11:55:15-05:00November 13th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Crude oil prices are being slammed again today, as the “dollar” continues to reek about the places where economy and finance come together. Crude oil is perhaps the most visible extension of that process, where finance helps figure out direction of prices that will eventually be necessary to physically clear (even and especially to storage) actual product. Given the position [...]

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