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emerging markets

Like ‘Inflation’, US Trade Betrays Core Monetarism

By |2015-11-05T13:56:08-05:00November 5th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Much like global “inflation”, if you set out to find global “demand” you will be hard pressed to find it.  QE was supposed to be a huge boost to aggregate demand, through inflation expectations, yet the score in 2015 is hugely negative.  Overseas problems are not unfortunately so remote, despite all mainstream protestations, as you can simply trace it all [...]

Greater Detail On Eurodollar Anecdotes

By |2015-10-30T10:47:54-04:00October 30th, 2015|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Written Wednesday Oct 28 Credit Suisse has stumbled in its initial restructuring effort. Forced by Swiss regulators to deleverage more quickly, the bank has turned to several unenthusiastic steps in order to comply. The Swiss banking unit will see a partial public flotation not to “unlock value”, as is commonly described, but rather to satisfy systemic banking requirements in the [...]

China Trade Figures Starting To Matter

By |2015-10-13T14:20:25-04:00October 13th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Unsure what to make of the renewed disaster in Chinese trade figures, there has been renewed emphasis on China being China. Almost every media story about the 20% collapse in imports references an assumed attempt by China to transform out of exports and into a consumer-driven economy without reconciling how or why that has so obviously and spectacularly failed. Nor [...]

Now Credit Suisse

By |2015-10-12T15:41:19-04:00October 12th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The capital and now loss projections for Deutsche Bank are, as much as they can be, more straight forward. In terms of Credit Suisse, the dubiousness of the implications is proportional to the “story.” Whereas Deutsche last week shocked Wall Street (and Europe) with a huge potential loss in FICC activities (their CB&S segment), any actual surprise was far overdone [...]

We Have Met The Enemy And He Is Us

By |2015-09-27T22:44:32-04:00September 27th, 2015|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

If the consequences for the economy were less important one couldn't help but be amused by the predicament in which Janet Yellen finds herself today. She and her fellow Fed travelers have been "preparing" the market for a rate hike for nearly a year and now it is that very preparation that has kept them from hiking rates as planned. [...]

The Mysterious Selloff

By |2015-08-23T17:57:40-04:00August 23rd, 2015|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

Why was the stock market down almost 6% last week? I know what you're thinking - has this guy been under a rock somewhere? But I'm serious. I know what all the pundits, commentators and talking heads are saying about the immediate cause. It's about the China devaluation and the knock on effect in other emerging markets. It's about global [...]

Rate Cycle & Macro Economic Backdrop – Investment Strategy Implications

By |2015-08-09T23:33:25-04:00August 9th, 2015|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

US monetary policy is the major driver of the global cost of capital. As a Fed rate cycle approaches, we see the effects of raising required returns across the globe. The increased volatility is a reflection of investors' changing return requirements, risk assessments and the associated unwinding of leveraged exposure. As we approach the anticipated Fed rate hike, look for he [...]

Down The Rabbit Hole

By |2015-04-26T20:37:25-04:00April 26th, 2015|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Stocks|

When logic and proportion have fallen sloppy dead And the white knight is talking backwards And the red queen's off with her head... Grace Slick, White Rabbit 'Twas brilling, and the slithy toves Did gyre and gimble in the wabe: All mimsy were the borogoves, And the mome raths ougrabe Lewis Carrol, Jabberwocky   For those of a certain age [...]

Shifting Momentum

By |2015-03-29T11:33:43-04:00March 29th, 2015|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Stocks|

US stocks continued their recently more volatile ways this week giving up almost all the gains of last week. In fact, the S&P 500 is now basically flat for the last four months, making no headway since late November despite a series of nominal new highs along the way. As the Fed has backed away from buying assets - assets [...]

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