With the dollar index and interest rates in downtrends, it seems the US economy is slowing absolutely and relative to the rest of the world. The slowdown, so far, doesn't look that severe and we are likely to get a rate cut from the Fed this week. Last September, the Fed surprised the market with a 50 basis point cut [...]
Okay, I confess. It was my fault. I decided to take a couple of days off. I took my eye off the ball and the stock market fell a quick 2% while I was relaxing, eating too much, and seeing some great art in the Holy City, Charleston, SC. I promise it won't happen again, at least until my wife [...]
The financial commentariat first started to worry about recession in April of 2022 when the spread between the 10-year Treasury rate and the 2-year Treasury rate turned negative - the yield curve inverted. It subsequently righted itself to positive territory until July of 2022 and has stayed inverted ever since. Since an inverted yield curve has preceded almost every recession [...]
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey showed declining activity in December after a positive November. It is also still showing declining future orders. Services in NY region also showing declining activity but also some optimism for the beginning of 2024. Disclaimer: This information is presented for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation [...]
Our first look at October numbers. Similar to the consumer sentiment report, we did see a down tick from last month and the survey did go back into negative territory. But, from a broader perspective we are still trending positive off the lows at the end of 2022. Disclaimer: This information is presented for informational purposes only and [...]
Investors crave certainty. They want to know that there are definitive signals for them to follow as they adjust their investments to fit the current market and economy. They want to know that A leads to B leads to C. Tea leaf readers are always in high demand on Wall Street and they continue to find employment despite their almost [...]
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