employment

Macro: Employment — ADP and Initial Claims — Strong Employment continues

By |2024-01-05T00:38:52-05:00January 5th, 2024|Economy|

The economic backdrop today: Employment is strong Employment drives personal consumption Initial Unemployment claims dropped by 18,000 to 202,000. This is the 4th lowest number of initial unemployment claims of the year. Continuing claims dropped as well and the slope of the 4-week moving average is now negative indicating an incrementally easier environment to find a new job. Today's ADP [...]

Macro: Job Openings and Labor Turnover

By |2024-01-03T13:35:34-05:00January 3rd, 2024|Economy|

The labor market is softening, but still strong.   Disclaimer: This information is presented for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy any investment products. None of the information herein constitutes an investment recommendation, investment advice or an investment outlook. The opinions and conclusions contained in this report [...]

Macro: Employment

By |2023-12-09T19:32:20-05:00December 9th, 2023|Economy|

Initial claims were up 1,000 to 220,000 and continue to not be a concern. Continuing claims on the week dropped below the 4-week moving average which was good to see. Challenger reported 45515 job cuts in November. That's up from 36,836 last month but down from 76,835 las November. To date in 2023, there have been 686,860 announced cuts. We [...]

Macro: Unemployment Claims

By |2023-11-30T14:10:13-05:00November 30th, 2023|Economy|

We are still at historically low levels of both initial and continuing claims. And we are concerned and watching as the trend looks to be on the rise. Weekly continuing claims continues to be above the 4-week average. We get concerned for economy when this number goes from 2,000,000 to 2,500,000 but wary that the low starting point may indicate [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Some Things To Be Thankful For

By |2023-11-26T21:56:26-05:00November 26th, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

We have a lot to be thankful for here in the US of A. It is sometimes hard to remember that while being constantly bombarded by negative news, about the economy and the country more generally. I don't like to comment about politics - I have to watch my blood pressure these days - so I'll stick to economics and [...]

Macro: Initial Claims — nothing has changed

By |2023-11-10T10:52:21-05:00November 10th, 2023|Economy|

Disclaimer: This information is presented for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy any investment products. None of the information herein constitutes an investment recommendation, investment advice or an investment outlook. The opinions and conclusions contained in this report are those of the individual expressing those opinions. This [...]

Macro: Challenger Job Cuts — Improvement throughout the year

By |2023-11-02T15:32:17-04:00November 2nd, 2023|Economy|

We had a bad 1st quarter relative to historic averages for job cuts. But the situation has gotten better throughout the year. In the 3rd quarter of 2023 less people are losing their job relative to the average 3rd quarter going back to 1989. Disclaimer: This information is presented for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to [...]

Macro: Initial Unemployment Claims

By |2023-11-02T10:23:22-04:00November 2nd, 2023|Economy|

Initial claims remain historically low. *A slight uptick this week and the 4 week MA has turned higher.   Disclaimer: This information is presented for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy any investment products. None of the information herein constitutes an investment recommendation, investment advice or an [...]

Macro: Employment ADP and Jolts both good reports

By |2023-11-01T17:05:47-04:00November 1st, 2023|Economy, Markets|

A slight zig in the right direction versus September for both reports. ADP reported an addition of 113,000 jobs in October up from 89,000 in September. Even better, this was a steady increase throughout the month and not an isolated week. For the Jolts report, this number is a month stale. But it's a good one to look at because [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: History Lessons

By |2023-04-10T08:39:57-04:00April 10th, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

One of the toughest things about navigating this bear market and the widely anticipated coming recession is that we've had to differentiate between real and nominal economic and market variables like nothing in recent decades. There are very few market commentators today who have navigated an inflationary environment like the current one. I haven't either, of course, which is why [...]

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