The Proper Perspective on Jobs and Income
The headline employment growth for May 1974 totaled 165,000 jobs. That followed a weaker report from April where only 89,000 new jobs were created. Only a few months before, the headline beancount of job quantity was 304,000. For the seven months between November 1973 and May 1974, the headline averaged +135,000. That was notable because .. read more
We’re All Monetarists Now
Japan last week announced a radical plan to finally slay the deflation dragon that has stalked their economy for the last 25 years. The sheer magnitude of the BOJ’s program should put to rest once and for all whether monetary policy can truly work as the growth tonic that policy wonks such as Ben Bernanke .. read more
Where Has All The Okun Gone?
Headline employment figures had been displaying a far better indication of the labor market than most of the internal, non-adjusted numbers for January and February. Unfortunately, in March the headline finally converged with disappointing internals rather than the other way around. In the Establishment Survey, the headline increase of 88k was far below expectations, and .. read more
Unemployment Claims and the Jobs Number Tell Us Nothing
Again, better than expected data buoys markets as the tepid recovery appears not to be worse than tepid. Today the Department of Labor reported a drop in initial jobless claims that seems to confirm the employment or jobs headline from last Friday. Low initial claims do tend to correlate with rising employment levels, so it .. read more
Friday’s Most Important Number Was Not Jobs
The employment report, as it always does, captured the most attention, but it was the wholesale inventory/sales report that deserved the widest audience. There will be plenty to say about the real employment situation currently (I will have a subsequent post devoted to earned income and job bean counting), but any discussion of jobs has .. read more
Employment Bean Counting Misses The Big Picture
Headline employment continues to look tepid, but at least moving in the right direction. However, that does not square with the GDP report from earlier this week. The headline Establishment survey average of the past few months appears inconsistent with such GDP weakness. Economists have been quick to point to the BLS employment numbers as .. read more
Adjusted vs Unadjusted, Unemployment & Housing
More data from various sources on primary economic parameters seemingly at odds. First, unemployment claims dropped to a five-year low according to the adjusted BLS data series. At the opposite end, Gallup’s measure of employment fell, suggesting to Gallup that employment has gotten worse in January 2013. Since Gallup’s numbers are not adjusted, it, rightfully, .. read more
Employment & Revisions
The headline in the Establishment survey was quite a bit better than expected, but once again it was at odds with most of the rest of the employment report. The Household survey fell by 122,000 reported jobs, while 350,000 people left the labor force. The number of estimated persons not in the labor force rose .. read more
