Where's the global economic meltdown? We're 3 months into a war with Iran, the Strait of Hormuz closed. 20% of global LNG is shutdown for the next 3 years, 20% of global crude oil production is being affected, 30% of global fertilizer supply is shut off, and roughly a third of global helium supply is bottled up in the gulf. [...]
The federal government shut down last week so we didn't get the monthly employment report last Friday and I think that may be the best news investors have gotten all year. I expect a lot of government generated economic reports to be missed during the shutdown, which I think could drag on a lot longer than previous versions. With the [...]
The Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee met last week with both Lisa Cook and Stephen Miran voting (more on that later). The committee lowered the target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points and hinted at future cuts: Recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity moderated in the first half of the year. Job gains have slowed, [...]
The economic backdrop today: Employment is strong Employment drives personal consumption Initial Unemployment claims dropped by 18,000 to 202,000. This is the 4th lowest number of initial unemployment claims of the year. Continuing claims dropped as well and the slope of the 4-week moving average is now negative indicating an incrementally easier environment to find a new job. Today's ADP [...]
The labor market is softening, but still strong. Disclaimer: This information is presented for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy any investment products. None of the information herein constitutes an investment recommendation, investment advice or an investment outlook. The opinions and conclusions contained in this report [...]
Initial claims were up 1,000 to 220,000 and continue to not be a concern. Continuing claims on the week dropped below the 4-week moving average which was good to see. Challenger reported 45515 job cuts in November. That's up from 36,836 last month but down from 76,835 las November. To date in 2023, there have been 686,860 announced cuts. We [...]
We are still at historically low levels of both initial and continuing claims. And we are concerned and watching as the trend looks to be on the rise. Weekly continuing claims continues to be above the 4-week average. We get concerned for economy when this number goes from 2,000,000 to 2,500,000 but wary that the low starting point may indicate [...]
We have a lot to be thankful for here in the US of A. It is sometimes hard to remember that while being constantly bombarded by negative news, about the economy and the country more generally. I don't like to comment about politics - I have to watch my blood pressure these days - so I'll stick to economics and [...]
Disclaimer: This information is presented for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy any investment products. None of the information herein constitutes an investment recommendation, investment advice or an investment outlook. The opinions and conclusions contained in this report are those of the individual expressing those opinions. This [...]
We had a bad 1st quarter relative to historic averages for job cuts. But the situation has gotten better throughout the year. In the 3rd quarter of 2023 less people are losing their job relative to the average 3rd quarter going back to 1989. Disclaimer: This information is presented for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to [...]
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