This will be written off as a temporary setback, and only then will anyone care if it follows in Friday’s payroll report. Just when the FOMC was counting on corroboration among all labor market data for its taper/balance sheet runoff/rate hike justification, this morning ADP threw a whole sack of wrenches in those plans. In the wake of the sack, [...]
The Bureau Labor Statistics reported today another huge month for Job Openings (JO). According to their methodology (which I still believe is flawed, but that’s not our focus this time), the level for October 2021 (JOLTS updates are for one month further back than payrolls) was a blistering 11.03 million. It wasn’t a record high, though, as that was set [...]
What was it that old Iowa cornfield movie said? If you build it, he will come. Well, this isn’t quite that, rather something more along the lines of: if you reopen it, some will come back to work. Not nearly as snappy, far less likely to sell anyone movie tickets, yet this other tagline might contribute much to our understanding [...]
Here we go again. Or maybe, more accurately, here we go still. COVID has reared its ugly head again, this time in the form of a new variant called Omicron. The name surprised some folks because the next letter in the Greek alphabet was Nu, but the WHO thought that sounded too much like "new" so they skipped that one, [...]
Almost all the economic data released last week was better than expected. ISM manufacturing PMI, Redbook retail sales, ISM non-manufacturing PMI (an all-time high), factory orders (headline and ex-transportation), ADP employment, jobless claims (new post-COVID low), non-farm payrolls, the unemployment rate, manufacturing employment, all better than expected. There were some disappointing reports: construction spending was down 0.5%, the trade deficit [...]
It is one of the most important results to look for, a payroll cue which opens up the question to much bigger issues. A recession or any serious downturn registers with employers first when they feel the need to cut back on labor. As the biggest input cost and cash flow commitment, nothing more than plain common sense.Once past some [...]
The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial stock averages made new all-time highs last week as bonds sold off, the 10-year Treasury note yield briefly breaking above 1.7% before a pretty good-sized rally Friday brought the yield back to 1.65%. And thus we're right back where we were at the end of March when the 10-year yield hit its high [...]
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times... Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities Some see the cup as half empty. Some see the cup as half full. I see the cup as too large. George Carlin The quote from Dickens above is one that just about everyone knows even if they don't [...]
The number of Job Openings for the month of July were revised upward, the BLS now thinking there had been more than 11 million of them during that month. Companies seem to be desperate for workers, at least judging by this one measure. The latest estimate for August 2021 came in well short of either the revised figure (11.1 million) [...]
Bonds sold off again last week with the yield on the 10-year Treasury closing over 1.6% for the first time since early June. The yield is now down just 16 basis points from the high of 1.76% set on March 30. But this rise in rates is at least a little different than the fall that preceded it. When nominal [...]
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