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establishment survey

UST Yields, Reverse Repo, and…Payrolls

By |2021-06-04T18:15:32-04:00June 4th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

February’s cold winter blast throughout the Southern United States was supposed to have been the extent of the weakness. The unusual and unusually severe freeze caused a great deal of havoc, making its way very quickly into economic data. The recovery was said to have been on a winning streak (vaccines, gov’t payments, etc.) so it seemed the easiest correlation [...]

Here We Go Again: Following Big Payroll Miss It’s The Level of Hiring, Not Job Openings

By |2021-05-11T16:52:47-04:00May 11th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Because it was outdated by publication of the most recent payroll data for April 2021, the follow-up updated JOLTS estimates for March don’t end up having quite the same impact. In one sense, that’s unfortunate because they are once again providing another useful demonstration of the limitations over decoding the employment situation.Job Openings (JO), for one. Before getting to them, [...]

Not Really A Massive Payroll Miss, Just Reopening

By |2021-05-07T16:25:05-04:00May 7th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Huge miss. Whopping dud. Maybe it wasn’t nearly that bad?The consensus forecast had called for payroll growth in April 2021 of something like +980,000, in line with the previous blowout estimate for March. In the updated batch, first that prior one was revised downward to just +770,000 and then the latest guess put the current month at a seemingly awful [...]

Can We Reconcile Jobless Claims To Payrolls?

By |2021-04-07T18:03:45-04:00April 7th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) estimates that in the month of March 2021 somewhere around 916,000 payrolls were added back to the economy. I have to disclaim the figure simply because the statistics used to create it aren’t really all that precise; piecing together data from a survey of 145,000 business establishments, a fraction of the economy’s total, the [...]

Reopening 2

By |2021-04-05T17:36:05-04:00April 5th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Last Friday’s March 2021 payroll report exceeded expectations in nearly every category. Analysts were hoping for something like the ADP’s private employment gains (+517k), somewhere in the ballpark of 550,000 to 600,000. Instead, the BLS thinks the whole economy had added between 803,700 and 1,028,300 (90% confidence). This translated into the “headline” of +916,000, of which +780,000 in the private [...]

Payrolls Everywhere Else

By |2021-03-05T17:15:29-05:00March 5th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

At first glance, the numbers weren’t bad. Maybe even borderline OK. The headline payroll figure nearly doubled consensus estimates, even better when taking into account only private payrolls even after ADP earlier this week had reported the opposite. Topline, the Establishment Survey gained 379,000 in February 2021, of which 465,000 were reportedly added to the private economy (government employment shrank [...]

What Happened To The ‘Bring Everything Back’ Function?

By |2021-02-05T17:41:27-05:00February 5th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The good news, such that it might be, is that the BLS - using data from the Census Bureau - believes that the American population is slowing down. According to the latest Civilian Non-institutional population estimates for January 2021, published alongside the current payroll report, the count was adjusted downward by around 400,000 consistent with the same kind and level [...]

Closing The Books on 2020 Didn’t Close The Books

By |2021-01-08T17:49:27-05:00January 8th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

ADP let the cat of the bag on Wednesday when the payroll processing provider announced it believed the level of private employment had declined in December 2020. Since it wasn’t likely to have been wildly inaccurate, it set the stage for a renewed negative number in the main government payroll report released today.According to those BLS’s Current Employment Statistics (CES), [...]

No Doubt, There Really Will Be Two “L’s” In Payrolls

By |2020-12-04T17:10:47-05:00December 4th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

Bad news is good news? The payroll report for November 2020, like those of the previous four months, have only further corroborated and confirmed the untimely death of the recovery. Since actual recovery can take only a “V” shape, then the end of the “V” necessarily means the end of recovery.In the twisted world of mainstream assumptions, however, fret none. [...]

Good Payrolls Still Say Slowdown

By |2020-11-06T17:13:12-05:00November 6th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The payroll report for the month of October 2020 was a very good one. This shouldn’t be surprising, perfect BLS publications appear with regularity even during the most challenging of circumstances. Headlines and underneath, everything looked fine last month. It wasn’t perfect, however, and it’s the same things that leave it short of perfection which are entirely too familiar for [...]

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