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Would The Real Dollar Please Stand Up

By |2020-07-27T19:46:53-04:00July 27th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

On December 3, 2015, Europe’s central bank, the ECB, supposedly disappointed markets especially those trading European equities. Losses were large because Mario Draghi’s gang of policymakers merely extended its first QE rather than accelerating the pace of purchases. Investors, such as they were, had been told to expect more than that. To make matters worse, according to the mainstream narrative, [...]

A Few Questions From Today’s BOND ROUT!!!!

By |2018-10-03T19:03:31-04:00October 3rd, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

On April 2, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield traded below 2.75%. It had been as high as 2.94% in later February at the tail end of last year’s inflation hysteria. But after the shock of global liquidations in late January and early February, liquidity concerns would override again at least for a short while. After April 2, the BOND [...]

Deflationary Decade(s)

By |2018-08-06T16:44:09-04:00August 6th, 2018|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I’ve seen a lot of commentary lately describe conditions as if things are calmed down. There was a bit of growth scare, a little T-bill indigestion earlier in the year. The Chinese are somehow both stimulating their export sector by devaluing CNY, and also controlling the price of gold while they do it. The contradictory inflation/deflation signals have apparently just [...]

The Quarks and Quirks of CNY’s Big Drop

By |2018-07-25T13:04:08-04:00July 25th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In 1962, physicist Wolfgang Panofsky finally obtained funding from the Atomic Energy Commission. As a faculty member at Stanford University he wanted the federal government to fund his monster. Dubbed Project M, for monster, Dr. Panofsky was seeking a method for scientists to obtain evidence for what was really going on inside the atom. The project was really a linear [...]

TIC Confirms Pretty Much Everything

By |2018-07-18T17:39:55-04:00July 18th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Russian ruble has fared far and away much better than its EM peers. Compared to something like the Brazilian real, there is no comparison. The ruble has been relatively steady following an initial drop in April with the imposition of sanctions. April 19 came and went, and while that date is displayed prominently across all the key currencies it [...]

Sintra +1

By |2018-06-21T17:33:51-04:00June 21st, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Does a year matter? It seems like a sufficient length of time whereby solid conclusions might be reached. While that may be true in a lot of disciplines, it is not so in Economics. Recall that in late June 2017, ECB President Mario Draghi kicked up a minor fury over presumed “hawkish” comments. It triggered a worldwide BOND ROUT!!! as [...]

China Reopens With Another Sneeze

By |2018-06-19T19:22:00-04:00June 19th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

If it seemed a bit calmer yesterday in global markets than has become typical, it was likely due to the absence of Chinese influence. China’s markets were closed for the country’s annual Dragon Boat festival, a holiday tradition that supposedly dates back 2,000 years. According to state media, it’s not strictly Chinese any longer. The celebrations have apparently spread all [...]

Chart of the Week: DB, €, ‘$’

By |2018-06-01T18:40:29-04:00June 1st, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In a week which renewed the world’s mystified acquaintance with Deutsche Bank, there are only a couple charts that could justifiably represent it. The chaos caused by Italy wasn’t, of course, really just Italy. The one to really watch is on the other side of the world. It starts in Europe where Deutsche Bank resides, but where the “dollars” flow, [...]

This Is A Really Strange Development (UPDATED)

By |2018-05-25T12:40:18-04:00May 25th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Last week, I reported on a sharp drop in repo fails for the week of May 9. The decline was so much that FRBNY indicated there were essentially no fails during those five trading sessions. It was way out of line with recent history and opened up little more than wild speculation as to what might have caused it. One [...]

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