eurodollar standard

TIC Confirms Pretty Much Everything

By |2018-07-18T17:39:55+00:00July 18th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Russian ruble has fared far and away much better than its EM peers. Compared to something like the Brazilian real, there is no comparison. The ruble has been relatively steady following an initial drop in April with the imposition of sanctions. April 19 came and went, and while that date is displayed prominently across [...]

Curves Have Been Here The Whole Time, Not That Anyone Cared

By |2018-07-10T19:07:04+00:00July 10th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Whether we notice them or not, there are a lot of things that do happen on a seasonal basis. Economists have tried to eliminate these patterns from our thoughts and analysis largely by smoothing them out with seasonal adjustments. But in money as markets there remain these bottlenecks. People have asked me from time to [...]

Good Reason To Fear The Futures

By |2018-07-06T17:41:50+00:00July 6th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The eurodollar futures curve has already turned on them. That’s why the sudden interest in things like federal funds futures. If it seemed yesterday with the release of the last meeting minutes that the FOMC members appear to be getting nervous, there is good reason. The eurodollar curve is already slightly inverted. Remember, these contracts [...]

Big Mama Leaves Huge Footprints Stepping All Over ‘Devaluation’

By |2018-06-27T19:09:41+00:00June 27th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Not a good day to be a global central bank. Competitive devaluations all around? Kidding aside, it’s getting serious in China. CNY DOWN = BAD, so says Big Mama. "The kind of dollar selling from that bank was so aggressive that we knew instantly that it must be from the Big Mama," said a Shanghai-based [...]

Revisiting China and ‘Devaluation’ As China Revisits ‘Devaluation’

By |2018-06-25T13:21:27+00:00June 25th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

When the Chinese yuan suddenly plummeted in mid-August 2015, the world looked on in stunned confusion. It didn’t make sense. The global economy was about to take off, they thought, and it wouldn’t be doing that without China’s vast anticipated contributions. Such a large move in such a short time frame for a major currency [...]

COT Blue: A Decade of Weird

By |2018-03-16T16:17:47+00:00March 16th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

On July 15, 2008, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke sat in front of Congress for the second of his required Humphrey-Hawkins reports for that year. The original act meant for these to be more than bland economic obfuscation, where the original Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act of 1978 demanded monetary targets. The Fed stopped [...]

Giant Sucking Sound Sucks (Far) More Than US Industry Now

By |2017-12-05T18:22:44+00:00December 5th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There are two possibilities with regard to stubbornly weak US imports in 2017. The first is the more obvious, meaning that the domestic goods economy despite its upturn last year isn’t actually doing anything positive other than no longer being in contraction. The second would be tremendously helpful given the circumstances of American labor in [...]

Three Years Ago QE, Last Year It Was China, Now It’s Taxes

By |2017-12-04T18:57:43+00:00December 4th, 2017|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported last week that the official manufacturing PMI for that country rose from 51.6 in October to 51.8 in November. Since “analysts” were expecting 51.4 (Reuters poll of Economists) it was taken as a positive sign. The same was largely true for the official non-manufacturing PMI, rising like its counterpart [...]