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eurodollar

China, Japan, And The Relative Pre-March Euro$ Calm In February

By |2022-04-20T19:50:24-04:00April 20th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The month of February 2022, the calm before the latest storm. Russians went into Ukraine toward the month’s end, collateral shortage became scarcity, maybe a run right at February’s final day, and then serious escalations all throughout March – right down to pure US Treasury yield curve inversion.Given that setup, it was unsurprising to find Treasury’s February TIC data mostly [...]

The (less) Dollars Behind Xi’s Shanghai of Shanghai

By |2022-04-19T20:29:36-04:00April 19th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

What everyone is saying, because it’s convenient, is that China’s zero-COVID policies are going to harm the economy. No. Economic harm of the past is the reason for the zero-COVID policies. As I showed yesterday, the cracking down didn’t just show up around 2020, begun right out in the open years beforehand, born from the scattering ashes of globally synchronized [...]

China More and More Beyond ‘Inflation’

By |2022-04-11T20:13:16-04:00April 11th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

If only the rest of the world could have such problems. Chinese consumer prices were flat from February 2022 to March, even though gasoline and energy costs predictably skyrocketed. According to China’s NBS, gas was up 7.2% month-over-month while diesel costs on average gained 7.8%. Balancing those were the prices for main food staples, especially pork, the latter having declined [...]

How This Russia/SWIFT Mess Might Mean More Shadows, And That Could Be A Good Thing

By |2022-04-04T20:08:23-04:00April 4th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

You look at the two charts below, and immediately you see how something doesn’t add up. On the one side, US banks haven’t lent dollars to Russia since the first time the Russians ended up in Ukraine back around February 2014. The US government declared domestic firms wouldn’t do business with Russian banks and they really haven’t.Score a victory for [...]

Volcker’s Petrodollar Bigfoot; Or Why Curves Today Are So Against The Fed And Its Rate Hikes

By |2022-03-29T18:08:25-04:00March 29th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

One of the biggest intellectual crimes of the Volcker Myth is how it quashed what likely would have been fruitful (in my opinion) further examination into the monetary designs of the actual global reserve system. People today still whisper about some secret oil-soaked deal which saw UST’s end up in the hands of Arabia’s Saudis, as if this was something [...]

China’s Loan Results Back The PBOC Going The Opposite Way From The Fed

By |2022-03-14T19:29:54-04:00March 14th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

This week will almost certainly end up as a clash of competing interest rate policy views. Everyone knows about the Federal Reserve’s upcoming, the beginning of what is intended to be a determined inflation-fighting campaign for a US economy that American policymakers worry has been overheated. The FOMC will vote to raise the federal funds range (and IOER plus RRP) [...]

The Dirty Demon-etizing End Of A Reserve Era

By |2022-03-02T18:54:04-05:00March 2nd, 2022|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Late in March 2020, the Bank of Russia (BoR) abruptly announced it would no longer purchase gold. For years, Russia’s monetary authorities had been the metal’s biggest buyer, not just among official institutions but anywhere in the world. In fact, the country had been steadily accumulating bullion ever since October 2006; an effort that accelerated, not coincidentally, in April 2014 [...]

SWIFT Isn’t The ‘Nuclear Option’ For Russia, Because The World Is Eurodollar Not Dollar

By |2022-02-28T18:48:54-05:00February 28th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

As everyone “knows”, the US dollar is the world’s reserve currency which can only leave the US government in control of it. Participation is both required and at the pleasure of American authorities. If you don’t accept their terms, you risk the death penalty: exile from the privilege of the US dollar’s essential business.From what little most people know about [...]

A Speculative Story: Treasuries in Belgium, Russians in Ukraine, and Derecognized NFC Loans Changing Across Europe (but mainly Belgium)

By |2022-02-27T15:35:30-05:00February 27th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Have European banks begun to lend in a way that will lead to actual inflation? For Europe’s central bankers, this is a huge question. For so many years despite almost constant QE, banks have consistently refused to do so. Even with supercharged asset purchases begun in 2020, there still hasn’t been any correlation between ECB activities and bank lending.This is [...]

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