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eurodollar

Textbook

By |2017-08-08T12:42:18-04:00August 8th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

China’s export growth disappointed in July, only we don’t really know by how much. According to that country’s Customs Bureau, exports last month were 7.2% above (in US$ terms) exports in July 2016. That’s down from 11.3% growth in June, which as usual had been taken in the mainstream as evidence of “strong” or “robust” global demand. According to China’s [...]

The Center Of The Inflation Debate

By |2017-08-07T16:42:39-04:00August 7th, 2017|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The mainstream media is about to be presented with another (small) gift. In its quest to discredit populism, the condition of inflation has become paramount for largely the right reasons (accidents do happen). In the context of the macro economy of 2017, inflation isn’t really about consumer prices except as a broad gauge of hidden monetary conditions. Therefore, if inflation [...]

Looking For Inflation Inside the Multipliers

By |2017-08-04T14:24:37-04:00August 4th, 2017|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Almost exactly ten years later, central bankers believe they are so very close now to the end of the crisis. It doesn’t matter that they have made the same claim before, this time is different they say. Global growth is finally synchronized, and all the policy clocks can strike normal, or what passes for normal, almost all at once. There’s [...]

The Magic Isn’t Gone, It Was Never There

By |2017-08-01T19:45:47-04:00August 1st, 2017|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In the midst of revisions season, everything is up for re-evaluation. Some end up as big changes, others mere footnotes. A lot has been revised (lower) about the past few years, particularly surrounding the substantial downturn at the end of 2015. Inflation rates are not among that list. The PCE Deflator has been given only mild benchmark revisions in contrast [...]

No Surprise, Wells Fargo

By |2017-07-28T14:13:12-04:00July 28th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In September 2016, Wells Fargo fired 5,300 employees. These sorts of mass layoffs have become common in banking throughout the post-crisis era, especially those years of the “rising dollar.” This was different, however, as Wells was not cutting back in capacity but dealing with the aftermath of being far too aggressive. These employees were found to have opened secret and [...]

Rough End of a Collateral Century

By |2017-07-28T13:24:35-04:00July 28th, 2017|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The entry of the United States into World War I placed a heavy financial burden on the government. The scale of such encumbrance was at the time almost unthinkable, and today is incomprehensible. Federal government expenditures in 1916 were all of $734 million, with $125 million financed by the new income tax authorized a few years prior by the 16th [...]

Dollars (TIC) In May: Consistently Inconsistent

By |2017-07-26T15:49:03-04:00July 26th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The TIC data for May was inconsistent. It has been that way for several months, and importantly describes what I think is the operative “dollar” condition. Though the data is several months old already, we can tell by certain real-time prices and indications that the difference between 2016 and 2017 is very clear in some parts, and none in others. [...]

What Manufacturing Productivity Suggests About ‘Dollars’ And Stagnation

By |2017-07-25T16:42:35-04:00July 25th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In a report released last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) found that Multi-Factor Productivity rose in only 21 of the 86 categories of the manufacturing industry in 2015. Unlike labor productivity which is more easily calculated, Multi-Factor Productivity measures attempt to take account of all business inputs (including labor). Capitalism is by its nature the combination of all [...]

Why It Will Continue, Again Continued

By |2017-07-24T19:35:00-04:00July 24th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Part of “reflation” was always going to be banks making more money in money. These days that is called FICC – Fixed Income, Currency, Commodities. There’s a bunch of activities included in that mix, but it’s mostly derivative trading books forming the backbone of math-as-money money. The better the revenue conditions in FICC, the more likely banks are going to [...]

Missing Money Inverts

By |2017-07-24T15:44:12-04:00July 24th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There was a funny sort of Congressional exchange all the way back in November 2005 that in a weird way defines our world today. At the nomination proceedings on whether to confirm Ben Bernanke as Alan Greenspan’s successor, Senator Jim Bunning of Kentucky wanted the prospective Fed Chairman to first answer for M3. It had become something of a conspiracy [...]

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