fbpx

Europe

Another Unnecessary Trip To The Laundry

By |2022-03-25T18:06:28-04:00March 25th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It was likely inevitable, broad economic commentary sifting into the laundry yet again. With alarming regularity, every couple of years the idea and the term “decoupling” rears its filthy head as major global economies seem to diverge. They don’t, though, merely an illusion, a trick due mostly to differences in timing.It was Mohamed El-Erian of PIMCO all the way back [...]

It Wouldn’t Be TIC Without So Much Other

By |2022-03-21T18:47:50-04:00March 21st, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

With the Fed (sadly) taking center stage last week, and market rejections of its rate hikes at the forefront, lost in the drama was January 2022 TIC. Understandable, given all its misunderstood numbers are two months behind at their release. There were some interesting developments regardless, and a couple of longer run parts that deserve some attention.Picking up where TIC [...]

A Speculative Story: Treasuries in Belgium, Russians in Ukraine, and Derecognized NFC Loans Changing Across Europe (but mainly Belgium)

By |2022-02-27T15:35:30-05:00February 27th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Have European banks begun to lend in a way that will lead to actual inflation? For Europe’s central bankers, this is a huge question. For so many years despite almost constant QE, banks have consistently refused to do so. Even with supercharged asset purchases begun in 2020, there still hasn’t been any correlation between ECB activities and bank lending.This is [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Ukraine Isn’t The Problem

By |2022-02-22T08:38:51-05:00February 21st, 2022|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Markets, Stocks|

As I write this, the S&P 500 futures are down over 80 points, apparently in response to some rather harsh comments from Vladimir Putin concerning Ukraine. Russia recognized the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk, two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine that border Russia, and is apparently deploying troops in these regions. This is seen by the west as a precursor [...]

The Global Money Spec-TIC-le In December

By |2022-02-15T18:07:05-05:00February 15th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Treasury Department released its broad TIC data today for the month of December 2022. Omicron fears, bond yields dropping despite the Fed’s rate hikes and an accelerating US CPI. Sure enough, more than a few segments of TIC consistent with those general outlines.Let’s begin with one of those which doesn’t have an immediate explanation; or, put another way, can’t [...]

Europe’s Inflation Situation, Where Germany’s 10s Are and Why

By |2022-02-03T20:28:56-05:00February 3rd, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

All eyes on Europe today where ECB Governor Christine Lagarde tried very hard to avoid committing to either rate hikes or the timing of them. Always conditional, she says. However, everyone knows different. With her counterparts at the Federal Reserve already committed to panicking over CPI rates, the latest HICP inflation numbers in Europe are not going to take any [...]

Deeper Into The Weeds of TIC For Red, Blue, And Collateral

By |2022-01-19T19:40:55-05:00January 19th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Why are US banks borrowing hundreds of billions of US “dollars” (quotation marks fully deserved given the nature of these borrowings which are neither physical currency nor easily identifiable even on the global ledger, too many classified here as “other”) from themselves? Technically, for regulatory and accounting purposes “American” banks (a classification which includes domestic subsidiaries of foreign banks) are [...]

As The Fed Seeks To Justify Raising Rates, Global Growth Rates Have Been Falling Off Uniformly Around The World

By |2022-01-05T20:00:52-05:00January 5th, 2022|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Sentiment indicators like PMI’s are nice and all, but they’re hardly top-tier data. It’s certainly not their fault, these things are made for very times than these (piggy-backing on the ISM Manufacturing’s long history without having the long history). Most of them have come out since 2008, if only because of the heightened professional interest in macroeconomics generated by a [...]

Inflationary Overheating, Tapering and Terminating QE, We’ve Seen These Before And It Didn’t End The Way It Was Supposed To

By |2021-12-30T12:23:09-05:00December 30th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The economy was in danger of running hot, too hot they all said. In order to stay ahead of such inflation potential, as central bankers saw it, first it would be necessary to wind down quantitative easing. Taper then terminate. After that, rate hikes.Hawks buzzing around everywhere.But Mario Draghi’s ECB had a problem. The inflationary pressures were there, he reasoned, [...]

Global Trade Case(s) Behind Global ‘Growth Scare’

By |2021-12-07T18:41:14-05:00December 7th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The US Census Bureau today reported that US imports of goods and services reached a record monthly high of $290.7 billion in October 2021. Just goods alone, the figure was $241.1 billion, which was 11% greater than the previous peak set way back in October 2018. With (questionable) media accounts continuing to highlight West Coast port traffic, there may not [...]

Go to Top