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factory gate prices

Odd Curve Shapes, or More Chinese Than Russian

By |2022-03-09T19:55:39-05:00March 9th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

This is a truly weird shape for the US Treasury curve to find for itself. Really steep up front, seriously upward sloping consistent with the Fed’s stated rate hike intentions (which influence short-term rates most directly up to around the 2-year note). From there on down, though, it’s flat. As in pancake, almost. I can’t recall a time when the [...]

Producer vs. Consumer Price Potential

By |2021-10-14T19:49:54-04:00October 14th, 2021|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

More inflation numbers around the world, more of the same. Producer prices, this time. Beginning in the US, the annual rates remain high and reached a little higher in September 2021. Commodities have been the highest of all, up 20.47% year-over-year for another greatest increase since the mid-seventies. The PPI for final demand goods was up 11.68%, that the most [...]

The Inflation Emotion(s)

By |2021-06-09T19:54:41-04:00June 9th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Inflation is more than just any old touchy subject in an age overflowing with crude, visceral debates up and down the spectrum reaching into every corner of life. It is about life itself, and not just quality. When the prices of the goods (or services) you absolutely depend upon go up, your entire world becomes that much more difficult. For [...]

The Right Mind Of China Inflation Via Automobiles

By |2021-05-12T19:42:09-04:00May 12th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I’m going to start with what might seem to be somewhat of a non sequitur if only because it’s one of those things you just have to laugh at. Researching historical cases and examples, I typically try to read as many contemporary thoughts or news articles as possible to gain a sense of what “everyone” was thinking at whichever times.In [...]

The Prices And Costs Of What Xi Believes He’s Got To Do

By |2020-11-11T19:43:19-05:00November 11th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It does seem, at first, a huge contradiction. On the one hand, what we know so far of China’s 14th 5-year plan apparently will lean heavily on new technologies not-yet invented to rescue the country’s economy from the pit of de-globalization the eurodollar system had thrown it into years ago. If the global economy isn’t going to recover, and there’s [...]

If Trade Wars Couldn’t, Might Pig Wars Change Xi’s Mind?

By |2019-12-10T17:01:01-05:00December 10th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Forget about trade wars, or even the eurodollar’s ever-present squeeze on China’s monetary system. For the Communist Chinese government, its first priority has been changed by unforeseen circumstances. At the worst possible time, food prices are skyrocketing. A country’s population will sit still for a great many injustices. From economic decay to corruption and rising authoritarianism, the line between back [...]

As Chinese Factory Deflation Sets In, A ‘Dovish’ Powell Leans on ‘Uncertainty’

By |2019-07-10T12:54:31-04:00July 10th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s a clever bit of misdirection. In one of the last interviews he gave before passing away, Milton Friedman talked about the true strength of central banks. It wasn’t money and monetary policy, instead he admitted that what they’re really good at is PR. Maybe that’s why you really can’t tell the difference Greenspan to Bernanke to Yellen to Powell [...]

China’s Big Money Gamble

By |2019-02-15T12:06:00-05:00February 15th, 2019|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

While oil prices rebounded in January 2019 around the world, outside of crude commodities continued to struggle. According to the World Bank’s Pink Sheet, base metal prices fell another 1.8% on average from December. On an annual basis, these commodities as a group are about 16% below where they were in January 2018. The last time they had fallen by [...]

Chinese Inflation Is More Than China And More Than Inflation

By |2016-05-11T13:07:15-04:00May 11th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Inflation is a complicated subject that has been devalued as if it were simply some variable in an equation. It starts with the very premise itself, as if an index of a bucket of consumer prices equals a comprehensive review of the subject. As Irving Fisher realized more than a century ago, money can go into places beyond any CPI’s [...]

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