Exploring the Limits of Monetary Intervention
The mini-cycle in inventory has re-appeared in the latest two regional manufacturing surveys. Both the Empire Fed and Philly Fed indices have again fallen below zero, indicating a contraction in activity. However, it is the frequency of negative readings that is most relevant. Since the middle of 2012, both surveys (along with their three other .. read more
There’s That Word Again
The Federal Reserve on a few separate occasions, as I noted late last week, has begun to peremptorily quash the growing use of the loaded word “bubble”. From academic papers to Fed speeches, US monetary policymakers want to make sure that investors and the public know they are watching for them though they have yet .. read more
Bubble Friday? FRBNY Economists See No Bubble
Apparently, we have clear sailing for another five years for stock prices: “We surveyed banks, we combed the academic literature, we asked economists at central banks. It turns out that most of their models predict that we will enjoy historically high excess returns for the S&P 500 for the next five years.” Sure, there are .. read more
Revisiting Dot-com Exuberance
Our friend and colleague Eric Hull pointed out that NYSE margin debt was just a hair below record levels in March (the latest figure available), at $379 billion. Eric also noted that the past two peaks in NYSE margin debt have corresponded with 3-5 months of additional “exuberance” (given the persistence of QE’s in this .. read more
Tangible Benefits Are Conspicuously Absent
There should be much closer scrutiny on attaining success through monetary means. As with the Federal Reserve in the United States, the ECB seems to be judged solely on the asset prices of a select group of asset classes. But somewhere, someone should be monitoring the actual efficacy of all of these interventions. I think .. read more
Sequester The Fed
“If Congress allows this meat-cleaver approach to take place, it will jeopardize our military readiness. It will eviscerate job-creating investments in education and energy and medical research. It won’t consider whether we’re cutting some bloated program that has outlived its usefulness or a vital service that Americans depend on every single day.” President Obama on .. read more
Buy Low, Sell High
Buy low, sell high. It is one of the most abused of market axioms and says both quite a lot and nothing at all. Of course you need to buy assets when they are cheap and sell them when they are dear but low and high aren’t exact terms and are, like beauty, amorphous qualities .. read more
Houses, FHA Losses And Eternal Faith in Persuasion
“More than 17 percent of all FHA loans were delinquent in September, according to data on the agency’s website.” I believe that number was 9% last quarter. Of course not all delinquencies turn into bad loans, or full-on NPL’s, but both the trend and absolute level should be alarming. The major problem, however, seems to .. read more
