federal reserve

Dovish = Uncertain, Therefore Dollar

By |2018-06-15T17:17:56+00:00June 15th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Back a few months ago when Europe was booming, or at least everyone was sure that this one particular economy was, market futures prices indicated an expectation for the first European rate hike to take place by Q2 2019. That was consistent with the US Federal Reserve’s experience as well as how the mainstream narrative [...]

It’s A Dollar Double Whammy, Just Not Theirs

By |2018-06-05T16:06:09+00:00June 5th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

First it was inflation. No, it was nuclear war in Korea. Then something about T-bills and government debt. And the ECB tapering while others were, too. Of course, before any of those there was 2a7. There’s always something, it seems, something different every time. Maybe it’s not any of them? Small “e” economics will survive [...]

Globally Synchronized Bond Vigilantes

By |2018-04-30T17:25:12+00:00April 30th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

One equal part of inflation hysteria had been that as the US economy recovers and growth accelerates, foreign buyers would flee US Treasuries. The bond market would be hit with a double damning of higher inflation and and substantially reduced overseas purchases. Under such pressure, no way could yields hold under 3% for very long. [...]

It’s Seems A Pretty Big Deal Ford’s New Focus Won’t Have A Focus

By |2018-04-26T19:11:22+00:00April 26th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Why isn’t Ford’s news getting a bigger reaction? This was no small announcement, essentially a retooling of its entire business. The company will, in effect, no longer build and sell cars; at least not cars as we think of them. The Mustang, it appears, will be the lone survivor among that category, but the Taurus [...]

A Boom Of Hysteria

By |2018-02-13T12:28:08+00:00February 13th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s always been easy to lose perspective. In the modern social media age, maybe it has become even easier. Conventional wisdom rarely seems to get challenged anymore, particularly given the assignment of “what everybody knows.” Big Data is, for example, predicated on a very good theory, the wisdom of crowds. It hasn’t yet lived up [...]

Inside and Outside, Market and Models Actually Agree On A Final Failing Grade For Yellen

By |2017-12-14T19:24:56+00:00December 14th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It was another pretty embarrassing day for the Federal Reserve and its policymaking body the FOMC. The latter voted, as expected, to raise the federal funds corridor (or double floor, if you can’t get over IOER fail) by another 25 bps. The long end of the Treasury bond market, however, was bid pushing yields down [...]