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Trade Wars Will Be The New Subprime

By |2019-05-31T16:29:11-04:00May 31st, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Trade wars are rapidly turning into subprime mortgages. A few billion in tariffs will have wrecked the entire global economy, they’ll claim. Just like all that toxic waste subprime mortgage fiasco led inevitably to the Great “Recession” and global panic. Neither will be true, except insofar as both were symptoms of the far greater cause. The other thing actually responsible [...]

Canada Signals Japan For Bond Yields

By |2019-04-24T17:45:02-04:00April 24th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Back in October, late October specifically, the Bank of Canada removed the word “gradual” from its policy statement. Inflation, staff Economists projected, was moving up as was the Canadian economy. It was finally time to become more aggressive. Freed from that one word, BoC officials could opt for a “rate hike” at every meeting. It was widely expected in December [...]

‘Bond Trading’ Exodus, The Global Economy’s Q4 Landmine

By |2019-04-05T17:52:26-04:00April 5th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It isn’t just US or European banks which are shrinking. The nature of this post-August 9, 2007, world is just that – global. Sure, there are regulations which have made investment banking more expensive. But there isn’t a rule or law that Wall Street (really Lombard Street) wouldn’t “discover” a way to circumvent it if they all thought it was [...]

Chinese Robots, New York Heartburn, and Goldman Sach’s Central Role

By |2019-02-05T18:54:16-05:00February 5th, 2019|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In the continued absence of regular data, as the US federal government attempts to get back up to speed before the next lull, it is perhaps appropriate to continue on with this week’s parade of anecdotes. Here I’ll discuss three of them, each seemingly unrelated to the others. To begin, we start with Chinese robots. It is the age of [...]

This Isn’t The First ‘Fed Pause’

By |2019-01-15T16:31:26-05:00January 15th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

And we come full circle back again. It’s not what they say, it’s what they do. Kansas City Fed CEO Esther George was at least consistent, unlike all the other voting FOMC members. Throughout 2015 and 2016, the rest of them would say the economy was strong but then vote the other way, no “rate hike.” December 2015 was the [...]

Curious Rush To Combine German Banks

By |2018-12-12T18:21:31-05:00December 12th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Markets today celebrated more bad news out of Germany. Misunderstanding especially in stocks is par for the course, not that it’s much better outside of them. German officials are laying the groundwork to change the nation’s banking laws so that it’s two largest banks, really “banks”, can more easily combine. If it should ever come to that. The major sticking [...]

A Slight Hint Of A 2011 Feel

By |2018-06-07T18:53:54-04:00June 7th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Whenever a big bank is rumored to be in unexpected merger talks, that’s always a good sign, right? The name Deutsche Bank keeps popping up as it has for several years now, this is merely representative of what’s wrong inside of a global system that can’t ever get fixed. In this one case, we have a couple of perpetuated conventional [...]

Is Anyone Really Surprised DB’s Problems Had Nothing To Do With The DoJ Fine?

By |2018-05-31T17:03:13-04:00May 31st, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

You need only go back a little less than two years for an example. In later 2016, Deutsche Bank was a huge problem everyone was discussing if only because they couldn’t avoid it. Despite “reflation” then gripping much of the world, the German institution stood out for all the wrong reasons. Those were easily dismissed as nothing other than an [...]

The Big German Zombie

By |2018-02-02T18:23:21-05:00February 2nd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s kind of a cheap shot to go back and rehash corporate statements from way back in the past. Still, when the topic is banking and why the monetary system refuses more than intermittent and minor progress, it’s worth the revisit. What’s different now than before 2008, really August 2007, is far more than regulation. It’s the attitude that’s changed. [...]

Fortress TIC

By |2018-01-17T18:31:12-05:00January 17th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Goldman Sachs reported FICC revenues of just $1 billion in Q4 2017. That was the lowest for the Wall Street firm, technically a bank, since it converted from properly a securities business to one during the worst of 2008. That was 50% less in “bond trading” than Goldman had produced during Q4 2016. You start to get the sense that [...]

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