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flattening

A Lousy State

By |2017-05-19T18:06:41-04:00May 19th, 2017|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I don’t pay much attention to the 2 year part of the UST curve because I think it is susceptible to information spoilage, distortions that aren’t strictly related to what a “risk-free” 2s should tell us. But as my colleague Joe Calhoun often reminds me, just because I don’t think it as important doesn’t mean that other people see in [...]

Two Years Too Late The Yield Curve Becomes Interesting

By |2016-05-16T18:45:58-04:00May 16th, 2016|Bonds, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The US Treasury yield curve is flattening again, with parts finally in 2016 surpassing the bearishness exhibited to start 2015. The mainstream is just now starting to notice likely because unlike last year there are no longer credible excuses to simply wish it away. “Transitory” is not a word you find much anymore, replaced instead by reluctant and forced acknowledgement [...]

The Depressive Tale of Nominal Yields

By |2014-09-08T17:36:07-04:00September 8th, 2014|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It is easy to get carried away with modern finance, diving into the immense flourishing of finance that has taken place. Conceptions have become far more complex, sometimes unnecessarily so, leading to impairments in distinguishing forest and trees. In credit markets, we focus narrowly on spreads and curves because that is where the “action” seemingly takes place. That leaves observation [...]

US Credit Bear Answers Europe & Japan

By |2014-08-29T16:35:56-04:00August 29th, 2014|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I have already written enough on a Friday before a long weekend about the growing pessimism in credit, but it bears reinforcing that such removal of central bank faith is not limited to Europe and Japan. US credit markets and dollar systems are equally partaking in the speed and depth of the bear flattening. Just this week, the UST curve [...]

Economists Try To Calculate The Wages of Angels Dancing On Pinheads

By |2014-08-05T14:10:12-04:00August 5th, 2014|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Janet Yellen began the debate, loosely termed, when she classified recent CPI and other measures of price changes as “noisy.” That created sort of an odd wedge between the FOMC policymaking orthodoxy and the wider set of orthodox economists that typically share the same exact dispositions on everything (especially since one feeds the other). The former “need” such badly calibrated [...]

Bonds’ Eye View Of Stock Exuberance

By |2014-05-15T16:45:09-04:00May 15th, 2014|Bonds, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

This is probably unusual in that posts intended as a discussion about the stock market typically feature stock prices or market indices. Rather, I intend to use here only bond market prices and indications and still make interpretations about stock market risk. My colleague Joe Calhoun has pegged stock investors as threading the needle – looking for data that is [...]

Credit Market Inflation, Policy Views

By |2014-03-21T13:24:22-04:00March 21st, 2014|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There were evident divergences all across the credit complex as the Yellen Fed takes shape. Maybe it relates to these “markets” being more accustomed to Bernanke and his manner of speech and saying nothing, but to me there appears to be little consensus about anything. I have said on previous occasions this year that swap market participants are not synchronized [...]

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