fomc

Why Hysteria Died, In One Day

By |2018-08-01T16:02:53+00:00August 1st, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Why did inflation hysteria die? The answer is surprisingly simple. Proponents way oversold the thing. They kept claiming that the labor market, via a truly booming economy, would force the Fed’s hand. Wage growth was about to explode, therefore monetary policy couldn’t afford to be complacent. Aggressiveness was about to become Jay Powell’s go-to position. [...]

Curves Have Been Here The Whole Time, Not That Anyone Cared

By |2018-07-10T19:07:04+00:00July 10th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Whether we notice them or not, there are a lot of things that do happen on a seasonal basis. Economists have tried to eliminate these patterns from our thoughts and analysis largely by smoothing them out with seasonal adjustments. But in money as markets there remain these bottlenecks. People have asked me from time to [...]

Good Reason To Fear The Futures

By |2018-07-06T17:41:50+00:00July 6th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The eurodollar futures curve has already turned on them. That’s why the sudden interest in things like federal funds futures. If it seemed yesterday with the release of the last meeting minutes that the FOMC members appear to be getting nervous, there is good reason. The eurodollar curve is already slightly inverted. Remember, these contracts [...]

Very Strong(ly Worried)

By |2018-07-05T18:47:25+00:00July 5th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Inflation hysteria and the boom hysteria may both seem like they are one and the same thing. They are related, sure, and they represent similar objects. However, there are subtle differences. The mania over inflation, for example, has subsided while the one about the economy reaches its own feverish pitch. In early June, Newt Gingrich [...]

Talk About Binary; No In Between, Either Boom or Renewed Deflation

By |2018-07-05T17:22:38+00:00July 5th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

CNY has held up over the last few days after Chinese officials intervened. Central bank actions like these tend to work if only over the very shortest timeframes. The tentative calm there, however, hasn’t extended universally. Copper, for one, has fallen right out of its Reflation #3 range. Selling off solidly for almost a month [...]

EFF Watch, Or Is It IOER Watch?

By |2018-06-22T16:09:37+00:00June 22nd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

How bereft of ideas might they have to be to fall back on IOER? It’s scandalous, really. But the Federal Reserve in terms of intellectual property belongs on the TV program Hoarders. They never throw anything away, so attached do they become to whatever ineffective idea implemented at any time. Practical experience is in their [...]