fomc

Macro: PPI — PPI and Powell fuel rally

By |2023-12-13T17:21:01-05:00December 13th, 2023|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

PPI Goods = -1.5% PPI Services = 2.1% PPI FD = .9% PPI translation to the consumer: PPI FD Personal Consumption = 1.04% PPI FD Personal Consumption less Food and Energy = 2.2% PPI FD Personal Consumption less Food, Energy and Trade Services = 2.9% PPI FD Personal Consumption less Food, Energy and Distributive Services = 3.4% We continue to [...]

Macro: FOMC November meeting — target remains unchanged

By |2023-11-01T15:41:00-04:00November 1st, 2023|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy|

The Fed left the policy rate unchanged at a range of 5.25-5.5%. Thinking about future meetings, Powell said that they he believes policy is restrictive and is working to bring down economic activity and inflation. But, he also said that they do not know whether the current policy rate is sufficiently tight enough to bring down inflation to 2% over [...]

All About The Benjamins

By |2023-06-17T21:17:32-04:00June 16th, 2023|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

No one could have possibly been surprised by the Fed's lack of action on Wednesday. They had signaled to anyone who would listen that they would pause (skip, take a hiatus, halt, or whatever you want to call it) at this meeting. And no one should have been surprised that Jerome Powell offered some tough talk about the future of [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: It’s Always Different This Time

By |2022-11-07T09:29:26-05:00November 6th, 2022|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

The FOMC met last week and did what everyone expected them to do - raised the Fed Funds rate by 0.75%. The bond and stock markets reacted not to this action but to the commentary provided by the committee in its statement and by Chairman Jerome Powell at his post meeting press conference. The former had a new phrase, a [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Just A Little Volatility

By |2022-10-17T07:39:17-04:00October 16th, 2022|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

Markets were rather volatile last week. That's a wild understatement and what passes for sarcasm in the investment business. Stocks started the week waiting with bated (baited?) breath for the inflation reports of the week. It isn't surprising that the market is focused firmly on the rearview mirror for clues about the future since Jerome Powell has made it plain [...]

Weekly Market Commentary: Counterintuitive

By |2022-07-25T07:34:18-04:00July 24th, 2022|Alhambra Portfolios, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

Where there is no hope it is incumbent on us to invent it. Albert Camus The economic data released last week was almost uniformly bad. We started the week with the NAHB Housing Index, a measure of builder sentiment, which fell from 67 to 55, much less than expected. Next up was more news on the housing market with starts [...]

Market Pulse: Mid-Year Update

By |2022-06-20T19:27:59-04:00June 20th, 2022|Alhambra Portfolios, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

Note: This update is longer than usual but I felt a comprehensive review was necessary. The Federal Reserve panicked last week and spooked investors into the worst week for stocks since the onset of COVID in March 2020. The S&P 500 is now firmly in bear market territory but that is a fraction of the pain in stocks and other [...]

Sorry Chairman Powell, Even FRBNY Now Has To Forecast Serious and Seriously Rising Recession Risk

By |2022-06-19T02:04:26-04:00June 19th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

At his last press conference, Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell made a bunch of unsubstantiated claims, none of which were called out or even questioned by the assembled reporters. These rituals are designed to project authority not conduct inquiry, and this one was perhaps the best representation of that intent.Powell’s job is to put the current predicament in the best [...]

Complete Catalog of Chaos and Carnage

By |2022-06-16T19:41:28-04:00June 16th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Wow, what an incredible day across the entire marketplace. And by incredible I mean nothing good at all. Predictable, though. All the warning signs and warned-about fragilities playing out as expected, escalation up and down each curve or equity index. To start with, I still don’t really know where the bills are right now! That it is even a question [...]

Prices As Curative Punishment

By |2022-06-10T18:14:54-04:00June 10th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It wasn’t exactly a secret, though the raw data doesn’t ever tell you why something might’ve changed in it. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, confirmed by industry sources, US new car sales absolutely tanked in May 2022. At a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 12.7 million, it was a quarter fewer than sales put down in May 2021 and [...]

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