The Census Bureau provided some updated inventory estimates about wholesalers, including its annual benchmark revisions. As to the latter, not a whole lot was changed, a small downward revision right around the peak (early 2021) of the supply shock which is consistent with the GDP estimates for when inventory levels were shrinking fast. What’s worth noting about the figures now [...]
This isn’t going to be like the tale of Goldilocks, at least not how it’s usually told. There are three central banks, sure, call them bears if you wish, each pursuing a different set of fuzzy policies. One is clearly hot, the other quite cold, the final almost certainly won’t be “just right.” Rather, this one in the middle simply [...]
The US Treasury curve, as you might have heard, is inverted. After today’s repeat sell-off, it’s a little less inverted than it had been recently (un-inverted in the 2s10s, which isn’t unusual) given how yields closed at the longer end up more than those up front and middle. The zig-zag back and forth of ultra-short run market fluctuations continues.But what [...]
It’s been a while, but the BLS finally got around to releasing a near-perfect payroll report. These had been incredibly common even during prior downturns and near recessions, which should only raise questions about them. Among any immediate concerns, how relevant can these data points be?In our current day, like the consumer price data, they’re already old news. That’s not [...]
What happened in October 2021? Another year’s Halloween, sure, some beerfest gluttony around the world. For all the happy revelries in that month the financial markets took a decidedly ominous turn. It hadn’t exactly been all rainbows and unicorns in them before then, yet they were at least stable to slightly optimistic about the future for 2022 or beyond.The list [...]
What can we make of the fact the US Treasury yield curve inverted between the 7-year and 10-year maturities first? It only took a few more days for more of the curve to bend upside-down, yet that just means the whole middle part is where the bad vibes are congregated. Does this somehow disqualify what would otherwise be a clear [...]
With such low levels of self-awareness, it isn’t surprising that the FOMC’s members continue to pour gasoline on the already-blazing curve fire. March Madness is supposed to be on the courts of college basketball, instead it is playing out more vividly across all financial markets. One reason why is that policymakers at the Fed really still believe, even after so [...]
When even Bloomberg can’t help but notice, not just notice but then write about it, that’s significant. Normally a staunch water carrier for the official Federal Reserve position, these curves getting bent so far out of what would be better shapes aren’t so easy to just dismiss and ignore any longer. Jay Powell says household and business finances are holding [...]
The Federal Reserve did something today, or actually announced today that it will do something as of tomorrow. And since we’re all conditioned to believe this is the biggest thing ever, I’ll have to add my own $0.02 (in eurodollars, of course, can’t be bank reserves) frustratingly contributing to the very ritual I’m committed to seeing end.We shouldn’t care much [...]
As Alan Greenspan’s rate hikes closed in, longer-term Treasury yields were forced upward as the flattening yield curve left no more room for their blatant defiance. By mid-2005, though, the market wasn’t ready to fully price the downside risks which had already led to that worrisome curve shape (very flat). While all sorts of bad potential could be reasonably surmised, [...]
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