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free trade

Global Asset Allocation Update

By |2019-10-23T15:07:25-04:00July 25th, 2018|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Markets|

Note: This will be a short update. We are shifting the timing of some of our reports. The monthly Global Asset Allocation update will now be published in the first week of the month, aiming for the first of each month. I’ll put out a full report next week. The Bi-Weekly Economic Review is shifting to a monthly update, published [...]

‘Dollars’ All Along, There Are No Winners

By |2017-02-28T17:13:34-05:00February 28th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) on November 11, 2001. Its membership took a decade and a half to achieve, no small wonder given that when it started the process the country looked nothing like it did when it was complete. Even by 2001, the Chinese economy was growing fast, but that was nothing compared to what it was [...]

It Was ‘Dollars’ All Along

By |2017-02-27T19:21:17-05:00February 27th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Ross Perot famously declared the “giant sucking sound” in the 1992 Presidential campaign. The debate over NAFTA did not end with George H. W. Bush’s defeat, as it simmered in one form or another for much of the 1990’s. Curiously, however, it seemed almost perfectly absent during the 2000’s, the very decade in which Perot’s prophecy came true. Americans didn’t [...]

Factories Or Money?

By |2017-01-06T17:17:01-05:00January 6th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There are a few parts of the payroll reports that do make sense without requiring alternative interpretation. Among these face value statistics is the estimate for manufacturing payrolls. The BLS figures that employment in the manufacturing sector peaked in July 2015 and has been declining ever so gently since then. Total job losses are just 61k over that year and [...]

The Effects Of Money On Trade

By |2016-09-27T12:04:05-04:00September 27th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There can be little doubt now outside of orthodox economics that the global economy is actually slowing, not accelerating as has been predicted. Economists themselves, however, continue to claim that things are getting better when the data strongly suggests otherwise. The latest depressing figures are from a pair of (orthodox) supranational organizations. First, the World Trade Organization (WTO) drastically reduced [...]

Who’s The Barbarian?

By |2016-08-02T15:24:56-04:00August 2nd, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Very few people are against the concept of free trade, and those who are aren’t worth listening to. As a matter of economics (small “e”), free trade was established as a universal good that benefits all sides in one of the first scholarly debates that in the early 19th century helped turn political economics into a separate study meriting its [...]

Not Even The Smallest Hint of Cyclicality Anymore

By |2016-05-09T16:32:55-04:00May 9th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It is absolutely clear that the eurodollar system last functioned on August 8, 2007. Starting August 9, nothing would ever be the same. In describing and detailing how it got that way (the sudden fragmentation between “dollars” in NYC and London, for example) there is a natural tendency to compartmentalize even realizing the drastic implications of what it all meant. [...]

One More Time: The Economy Is Not The Market

By |2015-06-15T09:07:28-04:00June 14th, 2015|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Stocks|

The title is a shorthand way of saying that the most recent performance of the economy isn't predictive of the future performance of the stock market. The bottom line is that GDP growth today doesn't necessarily mean stock price growth today - GDP growth and stock returns are not highly correlated. In fact, some analysis suggests that they are negatively [...]

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