friedrich hayek

Global Asset Allocation Update: Tariffs Don’t Warrant A Change…Yet

By |2018-03-09T11:28:10+00:00March 9th, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Global Asset Allocation Update, Investing, Markets, Politics, Stocks|

There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor the allocation to bonds is 50%, risk assets 45% and cash 5%. We have had continued volatility since the last update but the market action so far is pretty mundane. The initial selloff halted at the 200 day moving average [...]

The Pretense Of Knowledge

By |2015-05-25T18:58:23+00:00May 25th, 2015|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Investing, Markets, Stocks|

If man is not to do more harm than good in his efforts to improve the social order, he will have to learn that in this, as in all other fields where essential complexity of an organized kind prevails, he cannot acquire the full knowledge which would make mastery of the events possible. He will [...]

Butterflies, Blowback & Unintended Consequences

By |2014-01-27T00:02:55+00:00January 26th, 2014|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Investing, Markets|

The Law Of Unintended Consequences, often cited but rarely defined, is that actions of people - and especially of government - always have effects that are unanticipated or unintended. Economists and other social scientists have heeded its power for centuries; for just as long, politicians and popular opinion have largely ignored it. Rob Norton, The [...]

Central Planners To The Rescue

By |2012-09-09T16:25:10+00:00September 9th, 2012|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Investing, Markets, Politics|

The US stock market rose 2% last week based primarily on the perceived wisdom of various central economic planners around the world. Mario Draghi announced a new bond buying program in Europe designed specifically to circumvent the verdict of the market and prop up the governments of the peripheral countries. There are conditions which the [...]