full employment

Pay Attention

By |2022-03-11T17:32:47-05:00March 11th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Benchmark revisions have visited the BLS JOLTS survey, too. And yes, they’ve been smoothed. To that end, the hawkishly-watched Job Openings (JO) trend has been altered. Before this week’s release, JO had peaked like the Establishment Survey back last summer and had seemed to soften since. Now, JO continues on an upward bend rather than downward.For JOLTS Hires (HI), the [...]

Turning The LABOR SHORTAGE Up to 11

By |2021-09-08T17:53:40-04:00September 8th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In Massachusetts, the Federal Reserve’s First District, restaurateurs have struggled mightily to find workers. As part of the central bank’s Beige Book, one contact of the Boston leadership said the industry was “facing the worst labor shortage he has seen in 35 years of experience.” In response to such a major threat, these firms become truly creative to try to [...]

Just In Time For Labor Day: It’s Not Payrolls Missing The Mark By Such A Wide Margin

By |2021-09-03T18:02:37-04:00September 3rd, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It was a highly curious change in the shape of the labor force. Beginning October 2015 and lasting until March 2016, for six months Americans came flooding back into the labor market. Or, so they said. When the BLS’s various surveyors working on the Current Population Survey (known as the Household Survey) came calling for answers each month, all of [...]

Slowdown In The Rebound; Stop Listening To Central Bankers

By |2020-11-06T19:55:06-05:00November 6th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The primary reason for that first rate hike in a decade in December 2015 was ferbus figuring that full employment had probably been reached, certainly close to where the unemployment rate had fallen at that time. The Fed’s main econometric model calculated this key economic level at between 4.8% and 5.0% unemployment; the actual rate for that month hit five [...]

Context For The Inflation ‘Debate’

By |2017-08-22T19:24:55-04:00August 22nd, 2017|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

You can understand to some small degree economists’ collective confusion about inflation. They believe in wage dynamics, where a recession through mass layoffs creates slack and thus depresses wages. The recovery in a period of robust growth re-employs those unfortunate workers, and after enough time when that slack is reduced or even eliminated wages accelerate again (increased competition for labor). [...]

The Anti-Perfect Jobs Condition

By |2017-06-02T12:32:34-04:00June 2nd, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The irony of the unemployment rate for the Federal Reserve is that the lower it gets now the bigger the problem it is for officials. It has been up to this year their sole source of economic comfort. Throughout 2015, the Establishment Survey improperly contributed much the same sympathy, but even it no longer resides on the plus side of [...]

More Less Than Nothing, Labor Conditions

By |2017-05-16T17:30:54-04:00May 16th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Despite a lower calculated inflation rate for April 2017, Real Average Weekly Earnings were only just positive for the month year-over-year. As the CPI had moved higher on the base effects of oil prices, real earnings were forced negative in each of the three prior months. The reason is, as always, no acceleration in nominal wages or earnings. None. Given [...]

Itching To, But Not In A Rush

By |2017-05-05T12:37:39-04:00May 5th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Back in March 2015, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the policymaking body of the Federal Reserve, had a problem. In reality at that particular time they had a whole range of problems, but one in particular would set them on their current course. Their overarching task as they define it is to create or foster the best set of [...]

Broken Employment

By |2017-04-20T18:22:19-04:00April 20th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For the third consecutive month real average weekly earnings fell year-over-year. In March, at least, with the CPI starting its downward leg the decline was by the smallest amount; essentially flat but fractionally less than zero. It was the first time real wages have fallen three in a row since early 2012. The six-month average is just about zero, too, [...]

Some Notes On GDP Past And Present

By |2017-02-28T13:07:26-05:00February 28th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The second estimate for GDP was so similar to the first as to be in all likelihood statistically insignificant. The preliminary estimate for real GDP was given as $16,804.8 billion. The updated figure is now $16,804.1 billion. In nominal terms there was more variation, where the preliminary estimate of $18,860.8 billion is now replaced by one for $18,855.5 billion. Therefore, [...]

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