If last month was another perfect payroll month, June was at least its opposite. While the Establishment Survey advanced by more than 200k yet again, the average monthly gains has dipped significantly of late (more on that below). Outside of that, however, it was ugly everywhere. All the upward volatility in the rest of the data points from May were [...]
With the lunacy of “payroll Friday” on full display, it isn’t much of a surprise to get overwhelmed by commentary that totally upends what investing used to be. There once was a mythical relationship that spanned and nurtured between stocks and the real economy. The former was representative about what to expect in the latter, and the latter benefited from [...]
Payroll Friday lived up to its recent billing, offering those who see the economy as booming their headlines while providing nothing beyond that by which to confirm it. There is maybe a growing sense, given market action (especially bonds), that the headlines are becoming less “moving” and that this disparity has been internalized more so than at any time in [...]
With all the election post-mortems flying about, there really only needs to be reference to pre-mortems that predicted such results. Even typically leftist media outlets have seen the “message” for what it was. From The DailyBeast: Yes, the stock market is booming but overwhelmingly Americans are unhappy with their economic situation—and for good reason. Wages are stagnant and middle-class household [...]
The discrepancy I highlighted in last month’s jobs report (June) closed a bit in July as the Household Survey reported growth at a higher rate than the Establishment Survey (+227k vs. +162k). On the other side of the BLS ledger, the same charade continued with the official labor force falling by 37k. Those “not in the labor force” increased by [...]
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