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futures curve

It’s Small, But Gold Sticks Out

By |2015-08-19T15:23:34-04:00August 19th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It was, apparently, just a one-day “dollar” reprieve for the crude complex as oil prices are pounded today across the board even after the FOMC statement (leak) release. Unsurprisingly, copper joined the depression as the September futures price traded as low as $2.2605 this morning ($2.273 as of this writing). That is, of course, a new cycle low in copper [...]

No ‘Dollar’ Bottom Yet

By |2015-08-06T11:49:33-04:00August 6th, 2015|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

By most accounts, crude oil prices are still nearing their March lows. That would suggest that this version of “dollar” turmoil might be yet working its way toward levels of disorder previously seen in that last episode. That is misleading, as even crude prices are appreciably more stressed now than they were in March. From that, it follows that other [...]

First IMF, Then Yellen, Now Oil Downgrades the Economy

By |2015-07-10T16:41:01-04:00July 10th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

With a lull in Greek information and general craziness, as well as China essentially shutting down its stock exchange (no longer much as far as exchange) “dollar” pressure has abated. That is obvious in the treasury market which has seen a retracement in yields without collateral calls, but also somewhat in the related commodities. Copper prices are back up to [...]

Crude Economics Looks To The Back End

By |2015-04-30T11:23:17-04:00April 30th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

So far, yesterday’s FOMC has not re-ignited the dreaded “rising dollar.” In fact, there hasn’t been much reaction at all as far as funding markets go. Even oil prices remain near their recent highs, with spot WTI as high as $59.40 so far this morning. That is, again, far more a reflection of this latest benign “dollar” than more fundamental [...]

Getting October 15 Right, Even to Crude

By |2015-04-20T11:40:28-04:00April 20th, 2015|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It is becoming settled wisdom that the most dangerous aspects of any current financial contours are due almost entirely to some version of HFT or electronic trading. That is undoubtedly true, as far as it might relate to one aspect, but to claim that computers are the single biggest source, let along only source, of financial impropriety is obtuse. The [...]

Looking More Like Next ‘Dollar’ Problem

By |2015-03-10T17:04:14-04:00March 10th, 2015|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

It is Tuesday which only means that whatever oil trading takes place today will be easily overwhelmed by whatever interpretation about inventory levels released tomorrow dominates. However, the last week has been interesting in the respect of a shift in the behavior of the futures curve for WTI. Up until then, almost all volatility was concentrated in the front months, [...]

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